luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Vikings at Lions, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Vikings 30–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 60% favorites.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 20
Detroit Lions 30

January 7, 2024 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −3.5

Luck index +14 Lions about even · −14 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 1, Lions win 9.

  1. 1 MIN 27 DET 20
  2. 2 MIN 41 DET 43
  3. 3 MIN 14 DET 19
  4. 4 MIN 30 DET 38
  5. 5 MIN 17 DET 28
  6. 6 MIN 10 DET 24
  7. 7 MIN 28 DET 45
  8. 8 MIN 12 DET 32
  9. 9 MIN 17 DET 41
  10. 10 MIN 7 DET 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 14% of them, Lions 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+1.3%
Vikings by 9–163.4%
Vikings by 1–88.2%
Level after regulation1.7%
Lions by 1–820.3%
Lions by 9–1623.9%
Lions by 17+41.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 10, without the luck Lions by 8.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Joseph, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • M. Badgley, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 8 for 77 yards, Lions 4 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:57 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q1 1:31 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DET +2.1 pts
Q1 1:08 Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Nick Mullens), 10 yards +1% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.7 pts
Q2 14:13 Illegal Contact on the Lions (Kindle Vildor), 5 yards +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 12:55 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Brian Branch), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% MIN +1.7 pts
Q2 10:16 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.2 pts
Q2 1:25 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Brian Asamoah), 15 yards +1% DET +1.0 pts
Q3 7:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Joejuan Williams), 17 yards +2% DET +1.3 pts
Q4 10:31 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q4 7:40 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Cameron Sutton), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q4 2:56 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Jay Ward), 10 yards +1% DET +0.7 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:20 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% MIN DET: Punt
2 Q1 3:28 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +4% MIN DET: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:31 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% DET DET: Punt
4 Q2 12:55 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Brian Branch), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 747 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +5% MIN MIN: Field goal
5 Q2 0:02 G. Joseph made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +4% MIN MIN: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 11:39 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +5% DET MIN: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 11:34 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +5% DET MIN: Punt
8 Q4 5:07 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% MIN MIN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameson Williams (DET WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • John Cominsky (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Byron Murphy (MIN CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Ed Ingram (MIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Wonnum (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 1% · Lions 99%

Final margin
Lions by 10
Luck in points
1.6 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 8.4
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 14% · Lions 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Vikings · Lions

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