luckadjusted

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Vikings at Lions, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Vikings 30–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 1.6 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Lions were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:23 left): the Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 11 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 20
Detroit Lions 30

January 7, 2024 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −3.5

Luck index +28 Lions lucky · −28 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 3, Lions win 7.

  1. 1 MIN 38 DET 20
  2. 2 MIN 20 DET 12
  3. 3 MIN 34 DET 31
  4. 4 MIN 21 DET 23
  5. 5 MIN 30 DET 34
  6. 6 MIN 19 DET 26
  7. 7 MIN 19 DET 30
  8. 8 MIN 17 DET 33
  9. 9 MIN 9 DET 31
  10. 10 MIN 10 DET 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 28% of them, Lions 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+3.8%
Vikings by 9–167.6%
Vikings by 1–815.7%
Level after regulation3.5%
Lions by 1–823.7%
Lions by 9–1620.9%
Lions by 17+24.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 5.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • G. Joseph, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • M. Badgley, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:20 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% MIN DET: Punt
2 Q1 3:22 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q3 11:39 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% DET MIN: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 11:34 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% DET MIN: Punt
5 Q3 9:31 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:26 The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +11% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:07 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% MIN MIN: Turnover
8 Q4 3:23 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% DET MIN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameson Williams (DET WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • John Cominsky (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Byron Murphy (MIN CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Ed Ingram (MIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Wonnum (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 5% · Lions 95%

Final margin
Lions by 10
Luck in points
4.1 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 28% · Lions 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Vikings · Lions

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