luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Jets at Patriots, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Patriots 17–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 10 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Patriots.

An off day for the Patriots: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Patriots were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:10 left): the Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 16 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 17
New England Patriots 3

January 7, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −2.5

Luck index +3 Jets about even · −3 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 10, Patriots win 0.

  1. 1 NYJ 37 NE 3
  2. 2 NYJ 29 NE 3
  3. 3 NYJ 35 NE 13
  4. 4 NYJ 20 NE 0
  5. 5 NYJ 24 NE 7
  6. 6 NYJ 15 NE 0
  7. 7 NYJ 16 NE 3
  8. 8 NYJ 34 NE 24
  9. 9 NYJ 14 NE 7
  10. 10 NYJ 11 NE 9

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Patriots

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.

50 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.33 −0.04 worse by 0.29
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed −0.56 +0.04 better by 0.61
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained −0.56 +0.05 worse by 0.61
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed −0.33 +0.06 better by 0.39

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 97% of them, Patriots 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+72.0%
Jets by 9–1617.1%
Jets by 1–87.5%
Level after regulation0.7%
Patriots by 1–82.3%
Patriots by 9–160.4%
Patriots by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 14, without the luck Jets by 10.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Ryland, 30 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 40 yds made · 83% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 49 yds missed · 65% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 33 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 1 for 5 yards, Patriots 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:49 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Jets, 5 yards +2% NE +0.5 pts
Q2 14:41 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Demario Douglas), 10 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 12:58 Delay of Game on the Patriots (Jalen Reagor), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q3 10:26 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Anfernee Jennings), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q3 7:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Jabrill Peppers), 15 yards +2% NYJ +1.1 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:22 E. Elliott dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 71 catchable balls before this +6% NYJ NE: Punt
2 Q2 12:58 The Patriots converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedDelay of Game on the Patriots (Jalen Reagor), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1862 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +6% NE NE: Field goal
3 Q2 9:40 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% NYJ NE: Field goal
4 Q2 0:26 G. Zuerlein missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 51 of 72 from 45+ before +6% NE NYJ: Punt
5 Q3 8:57 G. Wilson dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 213 catchable balls before this +10% NE NYJ: Punt
6 Q4 12:23 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +10% NYJ NE: Punt
7 Q4 3:43 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% NE NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:10 The Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +16% NYJ NE: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mac Jones (NE QB), out, replaced by b.zappe · 2.4 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Hunter Henry (NE TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Strange (NE G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Conor McDermott (NE T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Quinton Jefferson (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 99% · Patriots 1%

Final margin
Jets by 14
Luck in points
3.3 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 10.7
Replay with same day's form
Jets 97% · Patriots 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Jets · Patriots

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