luckadjusted

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Jets at Patriots, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Patriots 17–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.0 points to the Patriots.

An off day for the Patriots: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Patriots were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:10 left): the Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 16 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 17
New England Patriots 3

January 7, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −2.5

Luck index +7 Jets about even · −7 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 NYJ 30 NE 0
  2. 2 NYJ 23 NE 0
  3. 3 NYJ 33 NE 13
  4. 4 NYJ 23 NE 6
  5. 5 NYJ 18 NE 3
  6. 6 NYJ 22 NE 9
  7. 7 NYJ 20 NE 10
  8. 8 NYJ 27 NE 20
  9. 9 NYJ 10 NE 7
  10. 10 NYJ 9 NE 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Patriots

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

46 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.33 −0.04 worse by 0.29
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed −0.56 +0.04 better by 0.61
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained −0.56 +0.05 worse by 0.61
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed −0.33 +0.06 better by 0.39

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 93% of them, Patriots 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+60.4%
Jets by 9–1621.9%
Jets by 1–810.9%
Level after regulation0.5%
Patriots by 1–85.2%
Patriots by 9–160.9%
Patriots by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 8.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Ryland, 30 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 40 yds made · 82% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 49 yds missed · 66% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 33 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:22 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedE. Elliott dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 71 catchable balls before this +7% NYJ NE: Punt
2 Q2 12:58 The Patriots converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedDelay of Game on the Patriots (Jalen Reagor), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1862 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +10% NE NE: Field goal
3 Q2 0:26 G. Zuerlein missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 51 of 72 from 45+ before +7% NE NYJ: Punt
4 Q3 8:57 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedG. Wilson dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 213 catchable balls before this +12% NE NYJ: Punt
5 Q3 4:10 The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q4 12:23 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +10% NYJ NE: Punt
7 Q4 3:43 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +10% NE NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:10 The Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% NYJ NE: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mac Jones (NE QB), out, replaced by b.zappe · 2.4 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Hunter Henry (NE TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Strange (NE G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Conor McDermott (NE T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Quinton Jefferson (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 99% · Patriots 1%

Final margin
Jets by 14
Luck in points
5.4 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 8.6
Replay with same day's form
Jets 93% · Patriots 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Jets · Patriots

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