2023 season · final
New York Jets, 2023: game by game
The Jets went 7–10 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.0 wins. Luck added 1.0: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.
Every game
How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Bills | W 22–16 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 2 | @ Cowboys | L 10–30 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 3 | vs Patriots | L 10–15 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 4 | vs Chiefs | L 20–23 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 5 | @ Broncos | W 31–21 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 6 | vs Eagles | W 20–14 | 30% | +70 |
| Week 8 | @ Giants | W 13–10 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 9 | vs Chargers | L 6–27 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 10 | @ Raiders | L 12–16 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 11 | @ Bills | L 6–32 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 12 | vs Dolphins | L 13–34 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 13 | vs Falcons | L 8–13 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 14 | vs Texans | W 30–6 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 15 | @ Dolphins | L 0–30 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 16 | vs Commanders | W 30–28 | 9% | +91 |
| Week 17 | @ Browns | L 20–37 | 73% | −73 |
| Week 18 | @ Patriots | W 17–3 | 97% | +3 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.80 | +11.8 |
| Injuries | +0.38 | +14.5 |
| Drops | +0.08 | +10.3 |
| Rest | +0.07 | +2.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.06 | −8.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.10 | −5.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.47 | −25.6 |