Week 17 2023 · December 28, 2023
Jets at Browns, Week 17 2023: who deserved to win?
The Browns beat the Jets 37–20, but the Jets played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Browns.
The Browns won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 77% of the time; with this day’s form, 28%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Browns were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:12 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 20 points of win probability to the Browns.
Final
 New York Jets | 20 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +72 Browns very lucky · −72 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 7, Browns win 3.
- 1 NYJ 25 CLE 0
- 2 NYJ 24 CLE 6
- 3 NYJ 22 CLE 9
- 4 NYJ 13 CLE 3
- 5 NYJ 10 CLE 3
- 6 NYJ 10 CLE 7
- 7 NYJ 20 CLE 19
- 8 NYJ 21 CLE 24
- 9 NYJ 7 CLE 17
- 10 NYJ 17 CLE 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Browns won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 77% of the time; with this day’s form, 28%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
49 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | +0.14 | −0.04 | better by 0.19 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.54 | +0.03 | worse by 0.51 |
| Browns offenseEPA per play gained | +0.54 | +0.05 | better by 0.49 |
| Browns defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.01 | worse by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jets win 72% of them, Browns 28%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 17+ | 23.2% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 22.0% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 24.0% |
| Level after regulation | 3.1% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 15.0% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 8.2% |
| Browns by 17+ | 4.5% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Browns by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 17.4.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 46 yds made · 79% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 31 yds blocked · 96% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 44 yds made · 81% expected
- R. Patterson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:35 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Elijah Moore), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2086 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 | +6% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 14:12 | The Browns converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +10% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:14 | The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +11% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:41 | The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 5:28 | The Browns converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +16% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 3:28 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% NYJ | CLE: Opp touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 2:12 | The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams | +20% CLE | NYJ: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 2:13 | The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams | +6% NYJ | CLE: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Amari Cooper (CLE WR), out · 1.1 pts
- Grant Delpit (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Dustin Hopkins (CLE K), out · 0.3 pts
- Rodney McLeod (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (CLE DE), out · 0.2 pts
- Corey Bojorquez (CLE P), out · 0.2 pts
- Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Quinton Jefferson (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 1% · Browns 99%
- Final margin
- Browns by 17
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 17.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 72% · Browns 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2023 games · 
Jets · 
Browns
More from Week 17 2023
- Lions at Cowboys DAL 20–19 · replay 39% for the winner
- Cardinals at Eagles ARI 35–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Falcons at Bears CHI 37–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Panthers at Jaguars JAX 26–0 · replay 95% for the winner
- Rams at Giants LA 26–25 · replay 88% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts IND 23–20 · replay 60% for the winner
- Dolphins at Ravens BAL 56–19 · replay 92% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills BUF 27–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 23–13 · replay 58% for the winner
- 49ers at Commanders SF 27–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Titans at Texans HOU 26–3 · replay 84% for the winner
- Steelers at Seahawks PIT 30–23 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bengals at Chiefs KC 25–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos DEN 16–9 · replay 69% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings GB 33–10 · replay 96% for the winner