luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · December 28, 2023–December 31

Week 17 2023: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Jets 37–20 in a game they win 27% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 17 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cardinals 35–31 @ Eagles 19% 58% Coin flip
Steelers 30–23 @ Seahawks 37% 75% Deserved
Saints 23–13 @ Buccaneers 43% 76% Deserved
Packers 33–10 @ Vikings 47% 98% Deserved

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Browns W 37–20 vs Jets 27% +73
2 Cowboys W 20–19 vs Lions 34% +66
3 Cardinals W 35–31 @ Eagles 58% +42
4 Colts W 23–20 vs Raiders 60% +40
5 Broncos W 16–9 vs Chargers 68% +32
6 Steelers W 30–23 @ Seahawks 75% +25
7 Saints W 23–13 @ Buccaneers 76% +24
8 Bills W 27–21 vs Patriots 78% +22
9 Rams W 26–25 @ Giants 85% +15
10 Chiefs W 25–17 vs Bengals 89% +11
11 Texans W 26–3 vs Titans 92% +8
12 Bears W 37–17 vs Falcons 95% +5
13 Ravens W 56–19 vs Dolphins 96% +4
14 Packers W 33–10 @ Vikings 98% +2
15 Jaguars W 26–0 vs Panthers 98% +2
16 49ers W 27–10 @ Commanders 99% +1
17 Commanders L 10–27 vs 49ers 1% −1
18 Panthers L 0–26 @ Jaguars 2% −2
19 Vikings L 10–33 vs Packers 2% −2
20 Dolphins L 19–56 @ Ravens 4% −4
21 Falcons L 17–37 @ Bears 5% −5
22 Titans L 3–26 @ Texans 8% −8
23 Bengals L 17–25 @ Chiefs 11% −11
24 Giants L 25–26 vs Rams 15% −15
25 Patriots L 21–27 @ Bills 22% −22
26 Buccaneers L 13–23 vs Saints 24% −24
27 Seahawks L 23–30 vs Steelers 25% −25
28 Chargers L 9–16 @ Broncos 32% −32
29 Raiders L 20–23 @ Colts 40% −40
30 Eagles L 31–35 vs Cardinals 42% −42
31 Lions L 19–20 @ Cowboys 66% −66
32 Jets L 20–37 @ Browns 73% −73