luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2023 · December 31, 2023

Dolphins at Ravens, Week 17 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Dolphins 56–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:41 left): the Dolphins converted 4th & 5, worth 14 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 19
Baltimore Ravens 56

December 31, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +4 Ravens about even · −4 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 MIA 45 BAL 48
  2. 2 MIA 35 BAL 41
  3. 3 MIA 17 BAL 26
  4. 4 MIA 14 BAL 27
  5. 5 MIA 21 BAL 37
  6. 6 MIA 17 BAL 36
  7. 7 MIA 20 BAL 43
  8. 8 MIA 20 BAL 46
  9. 9 MIA 24 BAL 55
  10. 10 MIA 6 BAL 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 4% of them, Ravens 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.3%
Dolphins by 9–160.9%
Dolphins by 1–83.0%
Level after regulation0.8%
Ravens by 1–87.6%
Ravens by 9–1615.7%
Ravens by 17+71.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 37, without the luck Ravens by 34.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Sanders, 38 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 5 for 37 yards, Ravens 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% MIA +3.9 pts
Q1 2:55 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +4% MIA +1.0 pts
Q1 0:26 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Cameron Goode), 10 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 0:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Cedrick Wilson Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q3 11:44 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.8 pts
Q3 10:34 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q3 6:10 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.5 pts
Q3 3:33 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards 0% MIA +0.4 pts
Q4 6:24 False Start on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 5:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jalen Ramsey), 8 yards 0% BAL +1.1 pts
Q4 3:18 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 0:38 False Start on the Dolphins, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.1 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:04 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1086 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +9% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q1 9:31 The Ravens converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:46 T. Hill dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 262 catchable balls before this +8% BAL MIA: Field goal
5 Q2 15:00 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% MIA MIA: Punt
6 Q2 6:08 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% MIA MIA: Field goal
7 Q2 4:41 The Dolphins converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +14% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 Q2 3:18 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% BAL MIA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyle Hamilton (BAL SS), out · 0.8 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Stephens (BAL FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kevin Zeitler (BAL G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaylen Waddle (MIA WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Connor Williams (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jerome Baker (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Raheem Mostert (MIA RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 37
Luck in points
2.9 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 34.1
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 4% · Ravens 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2023 games · Dolphins · Ravens

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