luckadjusted

Week 17 2023 · December 31, 2023

Dolphins at Ravens, Week 17 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Dolphins 56–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.4 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:41 left): the Dolphins converted 4th & 5, worth 16 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 19
Baltimore Ravens 56

December 31, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +8 Ravens about even · −8 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 30 BAL 23
  2. 2 MIA 24 BAL 27
  3. 3 MIA 26 BAL 31
  4. 4 MIA 34 BAL 42
  5. 5 MIA 22 BAL 34
  6. 6 MIA 22 BAL 37
  7. 7 MIA 17 BAL 37
  8. 8 MIA 14 BAL 37
  9. 9 MIA 20 BAL 48
  10. 10 MIA 6 BAL 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 8% of them, Ravens 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.9%
Dolphins by 9–162.1%
Dolphins by 1–85.2%
Level after regulation1.0%
Ravens by 1–811.0%
Ravens by 9–1622.1%
Ravens by 17+57.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 37. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 35.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Sanders, 38 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:04 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1086 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +9% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q1 9:31 The Ravens converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:46 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedT. Hill dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 262 catchable balls before this +10% BAL MIA: Field goal
5 Q2 15:00 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% MIA MIA: Punt
6 Q2 6:08 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% MIA MIA: Field goal
7 Q2 4:41 The Dolphins converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +16% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 Q2 1:32 The Ravens converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyle Hamilton (BAL SS), out · 0.8 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Stephens (BAL FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kevin Zeitler (BAL G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaylen Waddle (MIA WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Connor Williams (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jerome Baker (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Raheem Mostert (MIA RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 37
Luck in points
1.6 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 35.4
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 8% · Ravens 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2023 games · Dolphins · Ravens

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