luckadjusted

Week 17 2023 · December 31, 2023

Titans at Texans, Week 17 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Titans 26–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:10 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 14 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 3
Houston Texans 26

December 31, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5

Luck index +16 Texans about even · −16 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 2, Texans win 8.

  1. 1 TEN 19 HOU 7
  2. 2 TEN 13 HOU 10
  3. 3 TEN 10 HOU 13
  4. 4 TEN 3 HOU 9
  5. 5 TEN 6 HOU 13
  6. 6 TEN 3 HOU 13
  7. 7 TEN 10 HOU 24
  8. 8 TEN 10 HOU 26
  9. 9 TEN 16 HOU 34
  10. 10 TEN 0 HOU 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 16% of them, Texans 84%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.8%
Titans by 9–164.1%
Titans by 1–810.9%
Level after regulation2.6%
Texans by 1–827.6%
Texans by 9–1622.6%
Texans by 17+31.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 15.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Folk, 53 yds made · 73% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:17 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedC. Moore dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 75 catchable balls before this +9% HOU TEN: Punt
2 Q1 4:45 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% HOU TEN: Punt
3 Q1 4:21 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +12% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q1 2:53 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +3% HOU TEN: Punt
5 Q1 1:23 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% TEN HOU: Touchdown
6 Q1 1:19 Running Into the Kicker on the Titans (Caleb Murphy), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 23 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:53 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q2 10:10 The Titans fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +14% HOU TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Maliek Collins (HOU DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tre Avery (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ryan Stonehouse (TEN P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 0% · Texans 100%

Final margin
Texans by 23
Luck in points
7.1 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 15.9
Replay with same day's form
Titans 16% · Texans 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2023 games · Titans · Texans

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