luckadjusted

Week 17 2023 · December 31, 2023

Patriots at Bills, Week 17 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Patriots 27–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.3 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Bills were 87% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 15:00 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 24 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 21
Buffalo Bills 27

December 31, 2023 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −15

Luck index +23 Bills about even · −23 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 2, Bills win 8.

  1. 1 NE 23 BUF 10
  2. 2 NE 17 BUF 13
  3. 3 NE 15 BUF 17
  4. 4 NE 16 BUF 21
  5. 5 NE 15 BUF 23
  6. 6 NE 16 BUF 27
  7. 7 NE 13 BUF 27
  8. 8 NE 19 BUF 37
  9. 9 NE 7 BUF 29
  10. 10 NE 17 BUF 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 23% of them, Bills 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+2.6%
Patriots by 9–166.9%
Patriots by 1–811.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Bills by 1–824.1%
Bills by 9–1620.6%
Bills by 17+31.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 0.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • T. Bass, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Ryland, 47 yds missed · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +24% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:14 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedJ. Cook dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 68 catchable balls before this +9% NE BUF: Field goal
3 Q1 10:38 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% BUF NE: Punt
4 Q1 8:41 The Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% BUF NE: Turnover
5 Q1 5:57 The Patriots fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% BUF NE: Punt
6 Q2 12:47 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams +22% BUF NE: Touchdown
7 Q2 8:33 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% BUF BUF: Turnover
8 Q2 1:54 C. Ryland missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 5 of 10 from 45+ before +5% BUF NE: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Hunter Henry (NE TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NE SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cole Strange (NE G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Conor McDermott (NE T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 26% · Bills 74%

Final margin
Bills by 6
Luck in points
6.1 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 23% · Bills 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2023 games · Patriots · Bills

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