luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Buffalo Bills, 2023: game by game

The Bills went 11–6 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.6 wins. Luck cost them 2.6: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–6.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.3.

Every game

How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Jets L 16–22 44% −44
Week 2 vs Raiders W 38–10 84% +16
Week 3 @ Commanders W 37–3 94% +6
Week 4 vs Dolphins W 48–20 98% +2
Week 5 vs Jaguars L 20–25 86% −86
Week 6 vs Giants W 14–9 97% +3
Week 7 @ Patriots L 25–29 82% −82
Week 8 vs Buccaneers W 24–18 99% +1
Week 9 @ Bengals L 18–24 84% −84
Week 10 vs Broncos L 22–24 67% −67
Week 11 vs Jets W 32–6 100% 0
Week 12 @ Eagles L 34–37 59% −59
Week 14 @ Chiefs W 20–17 53% +47
Week 15 vs Cowboys W 31–10 95% +5
Week 16 @ Chargers W 24–22 84% +16
Week 17 vs Patriots W 27–21 77% +23
Week 18 @ Dolphins W 21–14 52% +48
Wild Card vs Steelers W 31–17 92% +8
Divisional round vs Chiefs L 24–27 37% −37

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bills’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+7.0+0.41
Fumble bounces+6.3+0.37
3rd & 4th downs+1.7+0.10
Drops−12.7−0.75
Kicks−14.2−0.83
Judgment calls−19.2−1.13