luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2023 · October 26, 2023

Buccaneers at Bills, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Buccaneers 24–18, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Bills were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:44 left): the Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 16 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18
Buffalo Bills 24

October 26, 2023 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −10

Luck index +1 Bills about even · −1 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 TB 23 BUF 26
  2. 2 TB 14 BUF 23
  3. 3 TB 13 BUF 24
  4. 4 TB 10 BUF 24
  5. 5 TB 13 BUF 30
  6. 6 TB 17 BUF 38
  7. 7 TB 7 BUF 31
  8. 8 TB 14 BUF 43
  9. 9 TB 9 BUF 43
  10. 10 TB 6 BUF 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 1% of them, Bills 99%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+0.0%
Buccaneers by 9–160.1%
Buccaneers by 1–80.3%
Level after regulation0.2%
Bills by 1–81.7%
Bills by 9–167.0%
Bills by 17+90.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Bills by 6, without the luck Bills by 8.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 50 yds blocked · 67% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 57 yds made · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 11 for 74 yards, Bills 9 for 86 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:31 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.7 pts
Q1 5:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taylor Rapp), 21 yards +10% TB +2.6 pts
Q1 3:48 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Trent Sherfield), 10 yards +2% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 9:16 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Trey Palmer), 10 yards +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 8:49 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.3 pts
Q2 0:47 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q2 0:19 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.2 pts
Q3 13:34 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 5 yards +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 7:51 Illegal Touch Kick on the Buccaneers (Josh Hayes), 5 yards +1% BUF +0.4 pts
Q3 2:47 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Siran Neal), 10 yards +1% TB +0.7 pts
Q3 1:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Calijah Kancey), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.6 pts
Q4 14:12 Delay of Game on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 13:12 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards 0% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 10:14 Delay of Game on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.7 pts
Q4 10:05 False Start on the Buccaneers, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.7 pts
Q4 9:16 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BUF +4.8 pts
Q4 4:14 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yards +2% TB +2.9 pts
Q4 3:11 Face Mask on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 15 yards, wiping out the play +2% TB +2.5 pts
Q4 2:44 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers, 15 yards +4% TB +1.1 pts
Q4 0:04 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Von Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB 0.0 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:50 C. Otton dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 72 catchable balls before this +6% BUF TB: Punt
2 Q1 5:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taylor Rapp), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3715 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +10% TB TB: Missed field goal
3 Q1 5:11 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TB TB: Missed field goal
4 Q1 4:26 C. McLaughlin had a 50-yard field goal blockedKicks · 67% expected for him, 30 of 43 from 45+ before +11% BUF TB: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% TB BUF: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:46 The Bills converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q4 9:16 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% BUF BUF: Punt
8 Q4 2:44 The Buccaneers’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throwsUnnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +16% TB TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Dawson Knox (BUF TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • DaQuan Jones (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB NT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Feiler (TB G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 15% · Bills 85%

Final margin
Bills by 6
Luck in points
2.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 8.6
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 1% · Bills 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Buccaneers · Bills

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