luckadjusted

Week 8 2023 · October 26, 2023

Buccaneers at Bills, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Buccaneers 24–18, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.0 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Bills were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:44 left): the Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 15 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18
Buffalo Bills 24

October 26, 2023 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −10

Luck index +1 Bills about even · −1 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 TB 26 BUF 29
  2. 2 TB 24 BUF 31
  3. 3 TB 23 BUF 35
  4. 4 TB 10 BUF 25
  5. 5 TB 10 BUF 28
  6. 6 TB 12 BUF 34
  7. 7 TB 23 BUF 48
  8. 8 TB 6 BUF 34
  9. 9 TB 10 BUF 43
  10. 10 TB 3 BUF 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 1% of them, Bills 99%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+0.0%
Buccaneers by 9–160.1%
Buccaneers by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.2%
Bills by 1–83.9%
Bills by 9–1611.8%
Bills by 17+83.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 11.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 50 yds blocked · 68% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 57 yds made · 56% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:14 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% TB TB: Punt
2 Q1 12:50 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedC. Otton dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 72 catchable balls before this +8% BUF TB: Punt
3 Q1 5:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taylor Rapp), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3715 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +9% TB TB: Missed field goal
4 Q1 4:26 C. McLaughlin had a 50-yard field goal blockedKicks · 68% expected for him, 30 of 43 from 45+ before +11% BUF TB: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +7% TB BUF: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:46 The Bills converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q4 9:16 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% BUF BUF: Punt
8 Q4 2:44 The Buccaneers’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +15% TB TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Dawson Knox (BUF TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • DaQuan Jones (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB NT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Feiler (TB G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 17% · Bills 83%

Final margin
Bills by 6
Luck in points
5.0 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 11.0
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 1% · Bills 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Buccaneers · Bills

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