luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Jaguars at Steelers, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Steelers 20–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Steelers.

An off day for the Steelers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:21 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (James Pierre), 17 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Pittsburgh Steelers 10

October 29, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −2.5

Luck index +6 Jaguars about even · −6 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 9, Steelers win 1.

  1. 1 JAX 39 PIT 3
  2. 2 JAX 43 PIT 15
  3. 3 JAX 40 PIT 16
  4. 4 JAX 30 PIT 10
  5. 5 JAX 27 PIT 10
  6. 6 JAX 26 PIT 13
  7. 7 JAX 27 PIT 17
  8. 8 JAX 19 PIT 13
  9. 9 JAX 6 PIT 3
  10. 10 JAX 13 PIT 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Steelers

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.

35 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.23 +0.10 better by 0.13
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed −0.16 +0.10 better by 0.26
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained −0.16 +0.04 worse by 0.21
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.23 +0.10 worse by 0.13

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 94% of them, Steelers 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+60.7%
Jaguars by 9–1622.6%
Jaguars by 1–810.5%
Level after regulation0.7%
Steelers by 1–84.4%
Steelers by 9–161.0%
Steelers by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.4 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 10, without the luck Jaguars by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • B. McManus, 51 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Boswell, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • B. McManus, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Boswell, 61 yds missed · 61% expected
  • B. McManus, 37 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 72 yards, Steelers 6 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (James Pierre), 17 yards +10% JAX +2.1 pts
Q1 11:57 Face Mask on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 15 yards +9% PIT +2.4 pts
Q1 3:14 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Keanu Neal), 15 yards +4% JAX +1.3 pts
Q2 9:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 32 yards +3% PIT +2.0 pts
Q2 2:03 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (James Pierre), 5 yards +4% JAX +0.7 pts
Q2 0:06 Offensive Offside on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.1 pts
Q4 13:52 False Start on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.6 pts
Q4 10:14 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 7:53 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% PIT +1.9 pts
Q4 6:03 False Start on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.7 pts
Q4 2:17 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Larry Ogunjobi), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q4 1:10 Illegal Motion on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.7 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 D. Johnson dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 118 catchable balls before this +7% JAX PIT: Punt
2 Q1 13:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (James Pierre), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 1507 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% JAX JAX: Field goal
3 Q1 11:57 Face Mask on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3413 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +9% PIT PIT: Punt
4 Q1 8:06 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q1 0:30 The Jaguars fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PIT JAX: Turnover
6 Q3 10:27 The Jaguars fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PIT JAX: Punt
7 Q3 6:15 The Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +8% PIT PIT: Punt
8 Q4 7:53 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% PIT PIT: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Levi Wallace (PIT CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Walker Little (JAX T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Andre Cisco (JAX SS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 68% · Steelers 32%

Final margin
Jaguars by 10
Luck in points
7.4 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 94% · Steelers 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Jaguars · Steelers

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