luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Saints at Colts, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Colts 38–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:30 left): A. Pierce dropped a catchable pass, worth 10 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 38
Indianapolis Colts 27

October 29, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Saints −2

Luck index +5 Saints about even · −5 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 9, Colts win 1.

  1. 1 NO 51 IND 13
  2. 2 NO 36 IND 6
  3. 3 NO 51 IND 27
  4. 4 NO 36 IND 17
  5. 5 NO 31 IND 16
  6. 6 NO 11 IND 0
  7. 7 NO 26 IND 17
  8. 8 NO 19 IND 14
  9. 9 NO 22 IND 20
  10. 10 NO 22 IND 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 95% of them, Colts 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+65.6%
Saints by 9–1619.1%
Saints by 1–89.4%
Level after regulation0.9%
Colts by 1–83.9%
Colts by 9–160.8%
Colts by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to the Colts: the final margin was Saints by 11, without the luck Saints by 15.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • M. Gay, 42 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. Grupe, 27 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 8 for 73 yards, Colts 6 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:21 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NO +1.3 pts
Q1 7:05 Illegal Formation on the Saints (Bryan Bresee), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% IND +1.1 pts
Q1 2:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 28 yards +6% IND +1.4 pts
Q2 12:25 Face Mask on the Saints (Carl Granderson), 6 yards +3% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 11:02 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 7:50 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Dayo Odeyingbo), 5 yards +2% NO +0.7 pts
Q2 7:21 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +2% NO +1.2 pts
Q3 11:05 False Start on the Colts (Josh Downs), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.8 pts
Q4 11:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts, 0 yards +1% NO +0.4 pts
Q4 11:12 False Start on the Saints, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.9 pts
Q4 9:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Tyrann Mathieu), 15 yards +1% NO +0.6 pts
Q4 5:22 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.6 pts
Q4 3:05 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.6 pts
Q4 3:05 False Start on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.5 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:26 M. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 55 catchable balls before this +5% IND NO: Punt
2 Q1 7:02 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +5% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 28 yardsJudgment calls · 25 flags in 3740 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q2 13:25 The Colts converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:03 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% IND IND: Field goal
6 Q2 2:00 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% IND IND: Field goal
7 Q2 0:30 A. Pierce dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 73 catchable balls before this +10% NO IND: Field goal
8 Q3 4:02 The Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +7% NO IND: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Dallis Flowers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Grover Stewart (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kylen Granson (IND TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • James Hurst (NO T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 100% · Colts 0%

Final margin
Saints by 11
Luck in points
4.2 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 15.2
Replay with same day's form
Saints 95% · Colts 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Saints · Colts

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