luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Ravens at Cardinals, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Cardinals 31–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:00 left): J. Tucker missed a 53-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 31
Arizona Cardinals 24

October 29, 2023 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −9.5

Luck index +37 Ravens lucky · −37 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Cardinals win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 31 ARI 6
  2. 2 BAL 37 ARI 19
  3. 3 BAL 42 ARI 28
  4. 4 BAL 20 ARI 10
  5. 5 BAL 36 ARI 30
  6. 6 BAL 27 ARI 25
  7. 7 BAL 17 ARI 20
  8. 8 BAL 16 ARI 24
  9. 9 BAL 13 ARI 26
  10. 10 BAL 14 ARI 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 63% of them, Cardinals 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+19.1%
Ravens by 9–1618.3%
Ravens by 1–824.8%
Level after regulation2.4%
Cardinals by 1–818.1%
Cardinals by 9–1610.8%
Cardinals by 17+6.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Ravens by 7, without the luck Ravens by 8.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 53 yds missed · 75% expected
  • J. Tucker, 48 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Prater, 47 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 6 for 45 yards, Cardinals 6 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:57 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% ARI +2.1 pts
Q1 8:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 18 yards +7% ARI +2.0 pts
Q1 8:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 10 yards +3% ARI +1.4 pts
Q1 3:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 19 yards +4% BAL +1.9 pts
Q2 7:40 False Start on the Ravens (Malik Harrison), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.4 pts
Q3 14:23 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals, 5 yards +3% BAL +0.5 pts
Q4 11:44 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards 0% ARI +0.8 pts
Q4 5:38 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Jalen Thompson), 15 yards +1% BAL +1.6 pts
Q4 3:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 16 yards +1% BAL +3.5 pts
Q4 1:20 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 2 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +1.6 pts
Q4 1:14 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards 0% BAL 0.0 pts
Q4 0:29 False Start on the Cardinals (Leki Fotu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.5 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:57 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1390 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 26 flags in 4297 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:24 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:08 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% BAL ARI: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 13:35 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +6% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
6 Q2 12:53 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
7 Q2 12:00 J. Tucker missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 45 of 59 from 45+ before +9% ARI BAL: Punt
8 Q2 8:58 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% BAL ARI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kei'Trel Clark (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kevin Strong (ARI NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 94% · Cardinals 6%

Final margin
Ravens by 7
Luck in points
1.5 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 8.5
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 63% · Cardinals 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Ravens · Cardinals

More from Week 8 2023