luckadjusted

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Ravens at Cardinals, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Cardinals 31–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.2 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:00 left): J. Tucker missed 53-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 31
Arizona Cardinals 24

October 29, 2023 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −9.5

Luck index +35 Ravens lucky · −35 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 7, Cardinals win 3.

  1. 1 BAL 32 ARI 6
  2. 2 BAL 29 ARI 9
  3. 3 BAL 37 ARI 23
  4. 4 BAL 20 ARI 10
  5. 5 BAL 30 ARI 23
  6. 6 BAL 20 ARI 16
  7. 7 BAL 25 ARI 23
  8. 8 BAL 16 ARI 19
  9. 9 BAL 20 ARI 29
  10. 10 BAL 5 ARI 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 65% of them, Cardinals 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+20.8%
Ravens by 9–1619.1%
Ravens by 1–823.5%
Level after regulation2.2%
Cardinals by 1–817.6%
Cardinals by 9–1610.4%
Cardinals by 17+6.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 7.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 53 yds missed · 74% expected
  • J. Tucker, 48 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Prater, 47 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:57 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1390 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 26 flags in 4297 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:24 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:08 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% BAL ARI: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 13:35 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
6 Q2 12:53 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
7 Q2 12:00 J. Tucker missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 45 of 59 from 45+ before +9% ARI BAL: Punt
8 Q2 8:58 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +7% BAL ARI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kei'Trel Clark (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kevin Strong (ARI NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 89% · Cardinals 11%

Final margin
Ravens by 7
Luck in points
0.8 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 7.8
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 65% · Cardinals 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Ravens · Cardinals

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