luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Bengals at 49ers, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the 49ers 31–17, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:13 left): the 49ers converted 3rd & 10, worth 11 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 31
San Francisco 49ers 17

October 29, 2023 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −4

Luck index +87 Bengals very lucky · −87 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, 49ers win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 31 SF 24
  2. 2 CIN 37 SF 40
  3. 3 CIN 23 SF 30
  4. 4 CIN 34 SF 43
  5. 5 CIN 41 SF 52
  6. 6 CIN 2 SF 17
  7. 7 CIN 9 SF 27
  8. 8 CIN 10 SF 31
  9. 9 CIN 20 SF 47
  10. 10 CIN 16 SF 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 13% of them, 49ers 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+1.1%
Bengals by 9–163.4%
Bengals by 1–87.5%
Level after regulation1.9%
49ers by 1–817.8%
49ers by 9–1619.9%
49ers by 17+48.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.9 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 14, without the luck Bengals by 9.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 50 yds missed · 71% expected
  • J. Moody, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • E. McPherson, 56 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 1 for 15 yards, 49ers 5 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 12:18 Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact on the 49ers (Isaiah Oliver), 15 yards +5% CIN +1.8 pts
Q2 4:30 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Jauan Jennings), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% CIN +1.4 pts
Q3 14:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 14 yards +4% CIN +1.6 pts
Q3 11:09 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% CIN +2.0 pts
Q4 1:59 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (D.J. Reader), 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% SF +5.2 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:49 The Bengals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:29 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:08 E. McPherson missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 29 of 37 from 45+ before +6% SF CIN: Turnover
4 Q2 4:30 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Jauan Jennings), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1283 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% CIN CIN: Turnover
5 Q2 0:38 The Bengals fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% SF CIN: Field goal
6 Q2 0:13 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% SF SF: Punt
7 Q3 9:19 The 49ers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +8% SF SF: Punt
8 Q3 0:12 The 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +6% CIN SF: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deebo Samuel (SF WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Trent Williams (SF T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jackson Carman (CIN G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 97% · 49ers 3%

Final margin
Bengals by 14
Luck in points
4.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 9.1
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 13% · 49ers 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Bengals · 49ers

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