luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Rams at Cowboys, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Rams 43–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:43 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys, worth 18 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 20
Dallas Cowboys 43

October 29, 2023 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −6.5

Luck index +16 Cowboys about even · −16 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 2, Cowboys win 8.

  1. 1 LA 36 DAL 23
  2. 2 LA 34 DAL 31
  3. 3 LA 30 DAL 31
  4. 4 LA 9 DAL 13
  5. 5 LA 20 DAL 27
  6. 6 LA 20 DAL 30
  7. 7 LA 9 DAL 22
  8. 8 LA 26 DAL 41
  9. 9 LA 6 DAL 26
  10. 10 LA 3 DAL 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 16% of them, Cowboys 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+1.3%
Rams by 9–164.2%
Rams by 1–810.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Cowboys by 1–824.8%
Cowboys by 9–1622.3%
Cowboys by 17+35.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.1 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 23, without the luck Cowboys by 16.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • L. Havrisik, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 58 yds made · 66% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 47 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 4 for 25 yards, Cowboys 4 for 21 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:46 Illegal Contact on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 6 yards +7% DAL +2.6 pts
Q2 2:02 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.3 pts
Q2 1:54 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% DAL +2.1 pts
Q2 1:21 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 5 yards 0% LA +0.8 pts
Q3 7:38 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.8 pts
Q3 3:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Derion Kendrick), 4 yards 0% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 10:55 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Nahshon Wright), 6 yards 0% LA +0.5 pts
Q4 6:12 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.5 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:46 Illegal Contact on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 403 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:30 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:23 The Rams converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% LA LA: Field goal
4 Q1 6:04 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +3% DAL LA: Field goal
5 Q1 3:25 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +3% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q1 1:34 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +3% LA DAL: Field goal
7 Q1 0:48 B. Aubrey made a 58-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before +6% DAL DAL: Opp touchdown
8 Q1 0:43 The Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +18% DAL LA: Safety

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Kyren Williams (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 23
Luck in points
6.1 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 16.9
Replay with same day's form
Rams 16% · Cowboys 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Rams · Cowboys

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