Week 13 · December 3–7 · 10 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 13 An early look at week 13, from what each team’s play has been worth so far with the luck taken out and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 10 weeks ahead picked 61.5% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.4, so about 81% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Rams by 0.6 · 52% to win
Ours: Rams by 0.6 Chiefs win 48% Rams win 52% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Chiefs win by Rams win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chiefs win 48.3% Rams win 51.7% Middle 50%: Chiefs by 8 to Rams by 10 50% Middle 90%: Chiefs by 21 to Rams by 23 90% Middle 95%: Chiefs by 26 to Rams by 27 95% Exactly Rams by 3 8.2% Exactly Chiefs by 3 8.0% Exactly Rams by 7 5.0% Exactly Chiefs by 7 4.7% Exactly Rams by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Chiefs +4.4 Home field Rams +2.3 Last season Rams +2.3 Quarterbacks Rams +0.4
Bengals by 2.2 · 57% to win
Ours: Bengals by 2.2 Bengals win 57% Browns win 43% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bengals win by Browns win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bengals win 56.7% Browns win 43.3% Middle 50%: Bengals by 11 to Browns by 7 50% Middle 90%: Bengals by 24 to Browns by 20 90% Middle 95%: Bengals by 28 to Browns by 24 95% Exactly Bengals by 3 8.3% Exactly Browns by 3 7.7% Exactly Bengals by 7 5.2% Exactly Browns by 7 4.4% Exactly Bengals by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Browns +2.3 Quarterbacks Bengals +2.2 This season, luck taken out Bengals +2.0 Last season Bengals +0.4
Lions by 5.2 · 65% to win
Ours: Lions by 5.2 Lions win 65% Falcons win 35% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Lions win by Falcons win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Lions win 65.4% Falcons win 34.6% Middle 50%: Lions by 14 to Falcons by 3 50% Middle 90%: Lions by 27 to Falcons by 17 90% Middle 95%: Lions by 31 to Falcons by 21 95% Exactly Lions by 3 8.2% Exactly Falcons by 3 6.9% Exactly Lions by 7 5.5% Exactly Lions by 14 4.5% Exactly Lions by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Quarterbacks Lions +4.3 Home field Falcons +2.3 Last season Lions +1.7 This season, luck taken out Lions +1.6
Saints by 1.2 · 54% to win
Ours: Saints by 1.2 Packers win 46% Saints win 54% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Packers win by Saints win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Packers win 46.4% Saints win 53.6% Middle 50%: Packers by 7 to Saints by 10 50% Middle 90%: Packers by 21 to Saints by 24 90% Middle 95%: Packers by 25 to Saints by 28 95% Exactly Saints by 3 8.2% Exactly Packers by 3 7.9% Exactly Saints by 7 5.1% Exactly Packers by 7 4.6% Exactly Saints by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Saints +2.3 This season, luck taken out Saints +1.8 Quarterbacks Packers +1.8 Last season Packers +1.1
Bears by 1.0 · 53% to win
Ours: Bears by 1.0 Jaguars win 47% Bears win 53% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Jaguars win by Bears win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jaguars win 47.0% Bears win 53.0% Middle 50%: Jaguars by 8 to Bears by 10 50% Middle 90%: Jaguars by 21 to Bears by 23 90% Middle 95%: Jaguars by 25 to Bears by 27 95% Exactly Bears by 3 8.2% Exactly Jaguars by 3 7.9% Exactly Bears by 7 5.0% Exactly Jaguars by 7 4.7% Exactly Bears by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Bears +2.3 Last season Jaguars +1.3 Quarterbacks Jaguars +0.2 This season, luck taken out Bears +0.1
Buccaneers by 3.8 · 61% to win
Ours: Buccaneers by 3.8 Chargers win 39% Buccaneers win 61% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Chargers win by Buccaneers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chargers win 38.6% Buccaneers win 61.4% Middle 50%: Chargers by 6 to Buccaneers by 13 50% Middle 90%: Chargers by 18 to Buccaneers by 26 90% Middle 95%: Chargers by 22 to Buccaneers by 30 95% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 8.3% Exactly Chargers by 3 7.3% Exactly Buccaneers by 7 5.4% Exactly Buccaneers by 14 4.2% Exactly Chargers by 7 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Buccaneers +2.7 Home field Buccaneers +2.3 Last season Chargers +1.4 Quarterbacks Buccaneers +0.2
49ers by 6.1 · 68% to win
Ours: 49ers by 6.1 49ers win 68% Giants win 32% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← 49ers win by Giants win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance 49ers win 67.7% Giants win 32.3% Middle 50%: 49ers by 15 to Giants by 3 50% Middle 90%: 49ers by 28 to Giants by 16 90% Middle 95%: 49ers by 32 to Giants by 20 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 8.1% Exactly Giants by 3 6.6% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.5% Exactly 49ers by 14 4.7% Exactly 49ers by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out 49ers +5.0 Home field Giants +2.3 Quarterbacks 49ers +1.8 Last season 49ers +1.6
Commanders by 1.3 · 54% to win
Ours: Commanders by 1.3 Commanders win 54% Titans win 46% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Commanders win by Titans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Commanders win 53.9% Titans win 46.1% Middle 50%: Commanders by 10 to Titans by 7 50% Middle 90%: Commanders by 24 to Titans by 21 90% Middle 95%: Commanders by 28 to Titans by 25 95% Exactly Commanders by 3 8.2% Exactly Titans by 3 7.9% Exactly Commanders by 7 5.1% Exactly Titans by 7 4.6% Exactly Commanders by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Titans +2.3 Quarterbacks Commanders +2.1 Last season Commanders +1.4 This season, luck taken out Commanders +0.1
Broncos by 10.0 · 77% to win
Ours: Broncos by 10.0 Dolphins win 23% Broncos win 77% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Dolphins win by Broncos win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Dolphins win 22.6% Broncos win 77.4% Middle 50%: Broncos by 2 to Broncos by 19 50% Middle 90%: Dolphins by 12 to Broncos by 31 90% Middle 95%: Dolphins by 17 to Broncos by 35 95% Exactly Broncos by 3 7.2% Exactly Broncos by 7 5.4% Exactly Broncos by 14 5.3% Exactly Dolphins by 3 5.2% Exactly Broncos by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Broncos +3.7 Last season Broncos +3.3 Home field Broncos +2.3 Quarterbacks Broncos +0.6
Eagles by 1.4 · 54% to win
Ours: Eagles by 1.4 Eagles win 54% Cardinals win 46% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Eagles win by Cardinals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Eagles win 54.2% Cardinals win 45.8% Middle 50%: Eagles by 10 to Cardinals by 7 50% Middle 90%: Eagles by 24 to Cardinals by 21 90% Middle 95%: Eagles by 28 to Cardinals by 25 95% Exactly Eagles by 3 8.2% Exactly Cardinals by 3 7.9% Exactly Eagles by 7 5.1% Exactly Cardinals by 7 4.6% Exactly Eagles by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Eagles +2.8 Home field Cardinals +2.3 Quarterbacks Eagles +0.7 This season, luck taken out Eagles +0.3
Bills by 2.3 · 57% to win
Ours: Bills by 2.3 Bills win 57% Patriots win 43% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bills win by Patriots win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bills win 57.0% Patriots win 43.0% Middle 50%: Bills by 11 to Patriots by 7 50% Middle 90%: Bills by 24 to Patriots by 20 90% Middle 95%: Bills by 28 to Patriots by 24 95% Exactly Bills by 3 8.3% Exactly Patriots by 3 7.7% Exactly Bills by 7 5.2% Exactly Patriots by 7 4.4% Exactly Bills by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Bills +3.7 Home field Patriots +2.3 Quarterbacks Bills +1.1 Last season Patriots +0.2
Vikings by 4.0 · 62% to win
Ours: Vikings by 4.0 Panthers win 38% Vikings win 62% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Panthers win by Vikings win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Panthers win 38.2% Vikings win 61.8% Middle 50%: Panthers by 5 to Vikings by 14 50% Middle 90%: Panthers by 18 to Vikings by 26 90% Middle 95%: Panthers by 22 to Vikings by 30 95% Exactly Vikings by 3 8.3% Exactly Panthers by 3 7.2% Exactly Vikings by 7 5.4% Exactly Vikings by 14 4.2% Exactly Vikings by 10 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Vikings +2.3 This season, luck taken out Vikings +1.5 Quarterbacks Vikings +0.1
Steelers by 1.0 · 53% to win
Ours: Steelers by 1.0 Texans win 47% Steelers win 53% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Texans win by Steelers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Texans win 47.0% Steelers win 53.0% Middle 50%: Texans by 8 to Steelers by 10 50% Middle 90%: Texans by 21 to Steelers by 23 90% Middle 95%: Texans by 25 to Steelers by 27 95% Exactly Steelers by 3 8.2% Exactly Texans by 3 7.9% Exactly Steelers by 7 5.0% Exactly Texans by 7 4.7% Exactly Steelers by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Steelers +2.3 Last season Texans +1.5 This season, luck taken out Steelers +0.5 Quarterbacks Texans +0.4
Seahawks by 5.4 · 66% to win
Ours: Seahawks by 5.4 Cowboys win 34% Seahawks win 66% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Cowboys win by Seahawks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cowboys win 34.2% Seahawks win 65.8% Middle 50%: Cowboys by 3 to Seahawks by 14 50% Middle 90%: Cowboys by 17 to Seahawks by 28 90% Middle 95%: Cowboys by 21 to Seahawks by 31 95% Exactly Seahawks by 3 8.2% Exactly Cowboys by 3 6.8% Exactly Seahawks by 7 5.5% Exactly Seahawks by 14 4.5% Exactly Seahawks by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Seahawks +3.5 Home field Seahawks +2.3 Quarterbacks Cowboys +1.9 This season, luck taken out Seahawks +1.5
Chiefs at 
Rams 
