luckadjusted

2026 NFL season · after Week 3 · regular season

Expected wins, 2026: what each team’s play was worth

The Vikings have won 2 games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.0, the biggest gap in the league, and points scored and allowed put them at 1.6. The Chargers are the other way round: 0 wins from play worth 0.8.

TeamRecordReplay winsCoin-flip winsPythagoreanBetting lineWins − replay
49ers 2–01.92.0 1.91.2+0.1
Bills 2–01.91.4 1.31.2+0.1
Seahawks 2–01.51.9 1.81.2+0.5
Bengals 2–01.41.4 1.51.0+0.6
Chiefs 2–01.42.0 1.51.2+0.6
Eagles 2–01.11.2 1.21.4+0.9
Raiders 2–01.11.4 1.70.9+0.9
Vikings 2–01.00.6 1.60.9+1.0
Ravens 1–11.71.6 1.21.3−0.7
Cowboys 1–11.61.5 1.21.2−0.6
Jets 1–11.51.2 1.30.9−0.5
Jaguars 1–11.41.5 1.51.2−0.4
Falcons 1–21.31.2 1.01.1−0.3
Bears 1–11.21.8 1.31.2−0.2
Patriots 1–11.11.1 1.61.0−0.1
Panthers 1–11.11.0 1.21.0−0.1
Rams 1–11.01.0 1.11.30.0
Packers 1–21.01.4 0.71.70.0
Steelers 1–10.80.8 0.61.1+0.2
Cardinals 1–10.81.0 0.60.7+0.2
Broncos 1–10.70.5 0.61.0+0.3
Saints 1–10.70.8 1.10.6+0.3
Lions 1–10.50.7 0.81.0+0.5
Browns 1–10.40.7 0.50.5+0.6
Giants 1–10.20.5 0.60.7+0.8
Chargers 0–20.80.1 0.41.4−0.8
Commanders 0–20.80.4 0.60.7−0.8
Texans 0–20.60.5 0.51.0−0.6
Colts 0–20.60.0 0.60.7−0.6
Buccaneers 0–20.60.8 0.81.1−0.6
Dolphins 0–20.60.5 0.20.6−0.6
Titans 0–20.50.5 0.50.8−0.5
Replay wins
Summed over the season: how often the team wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams actually played.
Coin-flip wins
The same with only kicks, bounces, drops, conversions and calls re-rolled. The number that best predicts the rest of a season: correlation 0.437 against 0.378 for actual wins.
Pythagorean
From points scored and allowed: games × PF2.37 / (PF2.37 + PA2.37).
Betting line
Summed win chances from each game’s closing spread: what the market expected before kickoff.

Luck-adjusted standings

Each division: record on the left, replay wins on the right. A line that falls from left to right belongs to a team whose record ran ahead of its play.

AFC East
RecordReplay wins
AFC North
RecordReplay wins
AFC South
RecordReplay wins
AFC West
RecordReplay wins
NFC East
RecordReplay wins
NFC North
RecordReplay wins
NFC South
RecordReplay wins
NFC West
RecordReplay wins

Due for regression?

Records furthest ahead of, and behind, coin-flip wins: the one number here that forecasts. It is a lean, not a lock: the betting market already prices most of this (luck doesn’t predict covering).

  • Vikings 2–0, coin-flip wins 0.6 (+1.4)
  • Eagles 2–0, coin-flip wins 1.2 (+0.8)
  • Raiders 2–0, coin-flip wins 1.4 (+0.6)
  • Buccaneers 0–2, coin-flip wins 0.8 (−0.8)
  • Bears 1–1, coin-flip wins 1.8 (−0.8)
  • Ravens 1–1, coin-flip wins 1.6 (−0.6)

Adjust the assumptions

Change how much of each kind of play counts as luck, and every team’s coin-flip wins are recomputed for the whole season.

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

Tested on 19,000 lucky breaks: no momentum, so it’s off by default. Why

#TeamWinsCoin-flip winsLuck
149ers22.00.0
2Chiefs22.00.0
3Seahawks21.9+0.1
4Bears11.8−0.8
5Ravens11.6−0.6
6Cowboys11.5−0.5
7Jaguars11.5−0.5
8Bengals21.4+0.6
9Packers11.4−0.4
10Bills21.4+0.6
11Raiders21.4+0.6
12Jets11.2−0.2
13Eagles21.2+0.8
14Falcons11.2−0.2
15Patriots11.1−0.1
16Panthers11.00.0
17Rams11.00.0
18Cardinals11.00.0
19Steelers10.9+0.1
20Saints10.8+0.2
21Buccaneers00.8−0.8
22Lions10.7+0.3
23Browns10.7+0.3
24Texans00.6−0.6
25Broncos10.5+0.5
26Vikings20.5+1.5
27Dolphins00.5−0.5
28Titans00.5−0.5
29Giants10.4+0.6
30Commanders00.4−0.4
31Chargers00.1−0.1
32Colts00.00.0

2026 luck rankings · One-score games · Referee calls · Methodology