luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Baltimore Ravens, 2026: game by game

The Ravens went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.7 wins. Luck cost them 0.7: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.

Every game

How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Colts W 41–23 86% +14
Week 2 vs Saints L 17–24 87% −87

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Drops+4.2+2.11
Injuries−1.1−0.53
Fumble bounces−1.6−0.79
3rd & 4th downs−1.9−0.97
Kicks−2.2−1.11
Judgment calls−10.7−5.36