Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026
Saints at Ravens, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Ravens 24–17, but the replays lean toward the Ravens: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Saints.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:28 left): T. Loop made a 49-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final
 New Orleans Saints | 24 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +73 Saints very lucky · −73 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 3, Ravens win 7.
- 1 NO 23 BAL 10
- 2 NO 17 BAL 10
- 3 NO 17 BAL 15
- 4 NO 13 BAL 15
- 5 NO 17 BAL 20
- 6 NO 7 BAL 13
- 7 NO 20 BAL 29
- 8 NO 14 BAL 27
- 9 NO 6 BAL 23
- 10 NO 3 BAL 26
Your call
Did the Saints earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Ravens by 8.1, 74% to win. The Saints won by 7, a result we gave 26%. The final margin was 15.1 points from ours; 23% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Saints win | 26.1% |
| Ravens win | 73.9% |
| Middle 50%: Saints by 1 to Ravens by 17 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Saints by 14 to Ravens by 29 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Saints by 17 to Ravens by 34 | 95% |
| Exactly Ravens by 3 | 8.0% |
| Exactly Saints by 3 | 5.9% |
| Exactly Ravens by 7 | 5.8% |
| Exactly Ravens by 14 | 5.2% |
| Exactly Ravens by 10 | 4.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 27% of them, Ravens 73%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 2.4% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 6.5% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 14.8% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 29.7% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 22.6% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 19.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- T. Loop, 49 yds blocked · 69% expected
- D. Carlson, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 76% expected
- D. Carlson, 51 yds made · 68% expected
- T. Loop, 49 yds made · 68% expected
Penalties: Saints 5 for 35 yards, Ravens 7 for 34 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:45 | Illegal Shift on the Ravens (LaJohntay Wester), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% NO +1.4 pts |
| Q1 2:52 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.5 pts |
| Q1 2:20 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Saints (Chris Olave), 15 yards | +3% BAL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 10:04 | Offensive Offside on the Saints (Bryce Lance), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% BAL +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:17 | Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Tavius Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NO +0.3 pts |
| Q3 8:12 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Chris Moore), 10 yards | +3% NO +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:41 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% NO +1.0 pts |
| Q3 2:32 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.2 pts |
| Q3 1:41 | False Start on the Ravens (Chris Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:42 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Jaylinn Hawkins), 1 yard | 0% NO 0.0 pts |
| Q4 2:03 | Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Trey Hendrickson), 3 yards | +4% NO +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | False Start on the Saints (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.6 pts |
Saints penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:59 | The Saints converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +7% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 7:34 | The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 11:05 | D. Carlson made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 59 of 81 from 45+ before | +8% NO | NO: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 3:28 | T. Loop made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before | +9% BAL | BAL: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 9:42 | The Saints’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Holding on the Ravens (Jaylinn Hawkins), 1 yardJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4450 snaps before, position avg 1 per 452 | +8% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:41 | The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +9% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 4:13 | The Saints converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +6% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:32 | The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +8% NO | NO: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Zay Flowers (BAL WR), out · 1.5 pts
- Andrew Vorhees (BAL OL), out · 0.2 pts
- Teddye Buchanan (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Mason Tipton (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Bryan Bresee (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Dillon Radunz (NO OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Zach Wood (NO LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 43% · Ravens 57%
- Final margin
- Saints by 7
- Luck in points
- 8.5 for the Saints
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 27% · Ravens 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Saints · 
Ravens
More from Week 2 2026
- Lions at Bills BUF 41–31 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 34–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Texans CIN 20–6 · replay 64% for the winner
- Browns at Buccaneers CLE 23–19 · replay 59% for the winner
- Packers at Jets GB 20–17 · replay 36% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 9–3 · replay 53% for the winner
- Eagles at Titans PHI 24–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos DEN 20–13 · replay 60% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LV 26–14 · replay 71% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers SF 35–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 31–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 37–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs KC 33–30 · replay 53% for the winner
- Giants at Rams LA 28–6 · replay 94% for the winner