luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Browns at Buccaneers, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Buccaneers 23–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Browns win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.5 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 11, worth 26 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

September 20, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −8.5

Luck index +57 Browns lucky · −57 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 4, Buccaneers win 6.

  1. 1 CLE 29 TB 10
  2. 2 CLE 26 TB 14
  3. 3 CLE 20 TB 13
  4. 4 CLE 17 TB 15
  5. 5 CLE 21 TB 23
  6. 6 CLE 14 TB 19
  7. 7 CLE 10 TB 17
  8. 8 CLE 10 TB 20
  9. 9 CLE 3 TB 18
  10. 10 CLE 16 TB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 43% of them, Buccaneers 57%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+8.1%
Browns by 9–1613.5%
Browns by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Buccaneers by 1–826.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1616.2%
Buccaneers by 17+14.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 4.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 59 yds made · 63% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 45 yds made · 86% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:09 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedK. Gainwell dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 163 catchable balls before this +8% CLE TB: Field goal
2 Q2 12:11 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +8% TB TB: Punt
3 Q2 2:50 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% TB CLE: End of half
4 Q4 6:48 The Browns converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:57 The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +20% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:45 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% CLE CLE: End of game
7 Q4 0:33 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +13% CLE TB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:22 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +26% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jacob Parrish (TB CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Wright (CLE DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CLE G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 72% · Buccaneers 28%

Final margin
Browns by 4
Luck in points
0.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 43% · Buccaneers 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Browns · Buccaneers

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