Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026
Browns at Buccaneers, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Browns beat the Buccaneers 23–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Browns win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Browns.
Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 11, worth 18 points of win probability to the Browns.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 23 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Browns lucky · −41 Buccaneers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 6, Buccaneers win 4.
- 1 CLE 34 TB 10
- 2 CLE 30 TB 13
- 3 CLE 25 TB 13
- 4 CLE 22 TB 14
- 5 CLE 34 TB 30
- 6 CLE 33 TB 31
- 7 CLE 13 TB 16
- 8 CLE 13 TB 19
- 9 CLE 12 TB 25
- 10 CLE 10 TB 30
Your call
Did the Browns earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Buccaneers by 8.6, 75% to win. The Browns won by 4, a result we gave 25%. The final margin was 12.6 points from ours; 30% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Browns win | 24.9% |
| Buccaneers win | 75.1% |
| Middle 50%: Buccaneers by 1 to Buccaneers by 17 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Browns by 13 to Buccaneers by 30 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Browns by 17 to Buccaneers by 34 | 95% |
| Exactly Buccaneers by 3 | 7.8% |
| Exactly Browns by 3 | 5.7% |
| Exactly Buccaneers by 7 | 5.7% |
| Exactly Buccaneers by 14 | 5.3% |
| Exactly Buccaneers by 10 | 4.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 59% of them, Buccaneers 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 14.6% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 16.7% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 26.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.7% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 18.6% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 13.3% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 7.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 59 yds made · 66% expected
- A. Szmyt, 50 yds made · 72% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 45 yds made · 87% expected
- A. Szmyt, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 97% expected
- A. Szmyt, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Browns 6 for 50 yards, Buccaneers 6 for 62 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:28 | Face Mask on the Browns (Sam Williams), 15 yards | +3% TB +0.8 pts |
| Q1 13:16 | Encroachment on the Browns (Maliek Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TB +0.3 pts |
| Q1 7:29 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TB +1.1 pts |
| Q1 1:48 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards | +2% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:09 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Alex Anzalone), 12 yards | +5% CLE +1.4 pts |
| Q1 0:57 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +3% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 14:18 | Encroachment on the Buccaneers (Calijah Kancey), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TB +0.3 pts |
| Q2 12:44 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% CLE +2.0 pts |
| Q2 9:40 | Offensive Holding on the Browns (Blake Whiteheart), 10 yards | +3% TB +1.2 pts |
| Q2 5:51 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CLE +2.5 pts |
| Q3 1:37 | Face Mask on the Buccaneers (YaYa Diaby), 15 yards | +5% CLE +1.2 pts |
| Q4 0:45 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards | +11% CLE +1.3 pts |
Browns penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:11 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +7% TB | TB: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 5:51 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% CLE | CLE: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 2:50 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +9% TB | CLE: End of half |
| 4 | Q4 8:40 | The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +7% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 6:48 | The Browns converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +9% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 0:45 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +11% CLE | CLE: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:33 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +13% CLE | TB: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:22 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +18% CLE | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jacob Parrish (TB CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Alex Wright (CLE DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Teven Jenkins (CLE G), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 84% · Buccaneers 16%
- Final margin
- Browns by 4
- Luck in points
- 2.1 for the Buccaneers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 6.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 59% · Buccaneers 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Browns · 
Buccaneers
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