Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026
Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 31–7, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:31 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 7, worth 10 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 31 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Seahawks about even · −20 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Cardinals win 2.
- 1 SEA 33 ARI 5
- 2 SEA 20 ARI 0
- 3 SEA 26 ARI 10
- 4 SEA 36 ARI 23
- 5 SEA 27 ARI 17
- 6 SEA 34 ARI 27
- 7 SEA 14 ARI 9
- 8 SEA 22 ARI 20
- 9 SEA 17 ARI 20
- 10 SEA 9 ARI 20
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Seahawks by 0.5, 51% to win. The Seahawks won by 24: the pick was right. The final margin was 23.5 points from ours; 6% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Seahawks win | 51.4% |
| Cardinals win | 48.6% |
| Middle 50%: Seahawks by 9 to Cardinals by 8 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Seahawks by 21 to Cardinals by 21 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Seahawks by 26 to Cardinals by 25 | 95% |
| Exactly Seahawks by 3 | 8.4% |
| Exactly Cardinals by 3 | 8.3% |
| Exactly Seahawks by 7 | 5.1% |
| Exactly Cardinals by 7 | 4.9% |
| Exactly Seahawks by 10 | 3.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 80% of them, Cardinals 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 29.8% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 21.9% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 27.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 11.3% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 5.6% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Seahawks 3 for 26 yards, Cardinals 6 for 48 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:43 | Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% SEA +1.2 pts |
| Q1 2:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Rodney Thomas II), 8 yards | +5% ARI +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:42 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:16 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Wydett Williams), 3 yards | +1% SEA +0.3 pts |
| Q2 5:34 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Karson Sharar), 15 yards | +3% SEA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:58 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Nehemiah Pritchett), 13 yards | +2% ARI +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:48 | Encroachment on the Cardinals (Josh Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:35 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 16 yards | +1% SEA +1.1 pts |
| Q4 3:20 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Kei'Trel Clark), 4 yards | 0% SEA +0.8 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 15:00 | The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +10% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 13:36 | The Seahawks fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% ARI | SEA: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 7:22 | R. Shaheed dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 169 catchable balls before this | +5% ARI | SEA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 1:16 | The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +10% ARI | SEA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 1:04 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +6% ARI | ARI: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:11 | J. Smith-Njigba dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 330 catchable balls before this | +6% ARI | SEA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 15:00 | The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 12:31 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +10% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Josh Fryar (ARI OL), out · 0.2 pts
- Sam Darnold (SEA QB), out, replaced by d.lock · 6.0 pts
- Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out · 0.3 pts
- Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 100% · Cardinals 0%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 24
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 29.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 80% · Cardinals 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Seahawks · 
Cardinals
More from Week 2 2026
- Lions at Bills BUF 41–31 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 34–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Texans CIN 20–6 · replay 64% for the winner
- Browns at Buccaneers CLE 23–19 · replay 59% for the winner
- Packers at Jets GB 20–17 · replay 36% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 9–3 · replay 53% for the winner
- Saints at Ravens NO 24–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- Eagles at Titans PHI 24–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos DEN 20–13 · replay 60% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LV 26–14 · replay 71% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers SF 35–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 37–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs KC 33–30 · replay 53% for the winner
- Giants at Rams LA 28–6 · replay 94% for the winner