luckadjusted

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 31–7 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 5.7 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): the Cardinals converted 4th & 2, worth 14 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 31
Arizona Cardinals 7

September 20, 2026 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −3.5

Luck index +30 Seahawks lucky · −30 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 7, Cardinals win 3.

  1. 1 SEA 37 ARI 13
  2. 2 SEA 32 ARI 16
  3. 3 SEA 33 ARI 20
  4. 4 SEA 23 ARI 14
  5. 5 SEA 23 ARI 17
  6. 6 SEA 13 ARI 10
  7. 7 SEA 24 ARI 23
  8. 8 SEA 17 ARI 20
  9. 9 SEA 10 ARI 17
  10. 10 SEA 17 ARI 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 70% of them, Cardinals 30%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+22.0%
Seahawks by 9–1622.1%
Seahawks by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation4.8%
Cardinals by 1–815.2%
Cardinals by 9–167.7%
Cardinals by 17+3.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 30.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 15:00 The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +14% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:22 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedR. Shaheed dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 169 catchable balls before this +7% ARI SEA: Punt
3 Q2 1:16 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +12% ARI SEA: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 1:04 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% ARI ARI: Punt
5 Q2 0:11 J. Smith-Njigba dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 330 catchable balls before this +7% ARI SEA: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 15:00 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:31 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q3 11:39 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% SEA ARI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Fryar (ARI OL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Sam Darnold (SEA QB), out, replaced by d.lock · 6.0 pts
  • Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 100% · Cardinals 0%

Final margin
Seahawks by 24
Luck in points
6.0 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 30.0
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 70% · Cardinals 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Seahawks · Cardinals

More from Week 2 2026