Week 2 2026 · September 21, 2026
Giants at Rams, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the Giants 28–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Rams were 68% favorites.
Final
 New York Giants | 6 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Rams about even · −6 Giants
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Giants win 1, Rams win 9.
- 1 NYG 21 LA 16
- 2 NYG 14 LA 17
- 3 NYG 14 LA 20
- 4 NYG 14 LA 23
- 5 NYG 16 LA 28
- 6 NYG 20 LA 35
- 7 NYG 13 LA 30
- 8 NYG 7 LA 30
- 9 NYG 14 LA 42
- 10 NYG 12 LA 47
Your call
Did the Rams earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Rams by 6.6, 70% to win. The Rams won by 22: the pick was right. The final margin was 15.4 points from ours; 22% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Giants win | 30.1% |
| Rams win | 69.9% |
| Middle 50%: Giants by 3 to Rams by 15 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Giants by 14 to Rams by 28 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Giants by 19 to Rams by 31 | 95% |
| Exactly Rams by 3 | 8.3% |
| Exactly Giants by 3 | 6.5% |
| Exactly Rams by 7 | 5.8% |
| Exactly Rams by 14 | 4.9% |
| Exactly Rams by 10 | 4.4% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Giants win 6% of them, Rams 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Giants by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 1.2% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 4.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Rams by 17+ | 61.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Zvada, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- H. Mevis, 43 yds missed · 86% expected
- D. Zvada, 52 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Giants 3 for 20 yards, Rams 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:06 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Josh Wallace), 5 yards | +7% NYG +1.6 pts |
| Q1 7:02 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards | +7% LA +1.3 pts |
| Q1 1:33 | Offensive Holding on the Rams (Colby Parkinson), 10 yards | +2% NYG +1.3 pts |
| Q2 14:35 | Offensive Holding on the Rams (Konata Mumpfield), 10 yards | +2% NYG +1.4 pts |
| Q2 3:06 | Defensive Offside on the Rams (Braden Fiske), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:22 | False Start on the Giants (Theo Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Tanner Ingle), 15 yards | +1% NYG +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:07 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYG +0.4 pts |
| Q4 6:21 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LA +0.6 pts |
Giants penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Rams’ chance of winning
As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:33 | The Giants converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +6% NYG | NYG: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:06 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Josh Wallace), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 901 snaps before, position avg 1 per 210 | +7% NYG | NYG: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:02 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:50 | The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 7:46 | The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +3% NYG | NYG: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 3:11 | The Rams fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% NYG | LA: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 1:21 | The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +3% LA | NYG: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 0:02 | H. Mevis missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +5% NYG | LA: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Puka Nacua (LA WR), out · 1.4 pts
- Justin Dedich (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kamren Kinchens (LA S), out · 0.3 pts
- Paulson Adebo (NYG CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Deonte Banks (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Roy Robertson-Harris (NYG DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Giants 0% · Rams 100%
- Final margin
- Rams by 22
- Luck in points
- 8.7 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 30.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Giants 6% · Rams 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Giants · 
Rams
More from Week 2 2026
- Lions at Bills BUF 41–31 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 34–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Texans CIN 20–6 · replay 64% for the winner
- Browns at Buccaneers CLE 23–19 · replay 59% for the winner
- Packers at Jets GB 20–17 · replay 36% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 9–3 · replay 53% for the winner
- Saints at Ravens NO 24–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- Eagles at Titans PHI 24–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos DEN 20–13 · replay 60% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LV 26–14 · replay 71% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers SF 35–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 31–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 37–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs KC 33–30 · replay 53% for the winner