luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 20, 2026

Colts at Chiefs, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Colts 33–30, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 8:38 left): the Chiefs converted 3rd & 12, worth 20 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final (OT)

Indianapolis Colts 30
Kansas City Chiefs 33

September 20, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −6

Our prediction before kickoff: Chiefs by 6.5

Luck index +47 Chiefs lucky · −47 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 5, Chiefs win 5.

  1. 1 IND 33 KC 10
  2. 2 IND 49 KC 35
  3. 3 IND 30 KC 20
  4. 4 IND 25 KC 20
  5. 5 IND 30 KC 27
  6. 6 IND 24 KC 27
  7. 7 IND 27 KC 33
  8. 8 IND 22 KC 31
  9. 9 IND 21 KC 34
  10. 10 IND 7 KC 29

Our prediction before kickoff

We had the Chiefs by 6.5, 69% to win. The Chiefs won by 3: the pick was right. The final margin was 3.5 points from ours; 75% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Colts win30.5%
Chiefs win69.5%
Middle 50%: Colts by 3 to Chiefs by 1550%
Middle 90%: Colts by 14 to Chiefs by 2890%
Middle 95%: Colts by 19 to Chiefs by 3195%
Exactly Chiefs by 38.3%
Exactly Colts by 36.6%
Exactly Chiefs by 75.8%
Exactly Chiefs by 144.9%
Exactly Chiefs by 104.4%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 47% of them, Chiefs 53%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+10.0%
Colts by 9–1614.0%
Colts by 1–821.5%
Level after regulation6.0%
Chiefs by 1–822.6%
Chiefs by 9–1614.4%
Chiefs by 17+11.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to the Colts: the final margin was Chiefs by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 10.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • S. Shrader, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • H. Butker, 51 yds missed · 71% expected
  • S. Shrader, 49 yds made · 71% expected
  • H. Butker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • H. Butker, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • S. Shrader, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • H. Butker, 40 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 5 for 30 yards, Chiefs 8 for 86 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:08 False Start on the Colts (Jonathan Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q1 9:34 Roughing the Passer on the Chiefs (Jaden Hicks), 2 yards +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q1 6:09 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts (JT Tuimoloau), 10 yards +2% KC +0.8 pts
Q2 14:48 Illegal Formation on the Chiefs (Christian Roland-Wallace), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 11:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Kristian Fulton), 26 yards +10% IND +2.1 pts
Q2 10:26 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.5 pts
Q2 10:26 False Start on the Colts (Laquon Treadwell), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.4 pts
Q2 8:55 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +6% IND +1.6 pts
Q2 1:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Kristian Fulton), 23 yards +7% IND +1.4 pts
Q3 0:48 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 10:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (George Karlaftis III), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.7 pts
OT 6:49 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% IND +0.8 pts
OT 3:15 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.1 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:47 H. Butker missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 57 of 76 from 45+ before +9% IND KC: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Kristian Fulton), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 3467 snaps before, position avg 1 per 210 +10% IND IND: Field goal
3 Q3 10:38 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:06 The Chiefs converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:00 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +9% IND IND: Punt
6 Q4 0:40 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% KC IND: Punt
7 OT 8:38 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +20% KC KC: Field goal
8 OT 1:30 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +9% KC KC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Simmons (KC T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chamarri Conner (KC DB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 5% · Chiefs 95%

Final margin
Chiefs by 3
Luck in points
8.0 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 11.0
Replay with same day's form
Colts 47% · Chiefs 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Colts · Chiefs

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