2026 season · in progress
Kansas City Chiefs, 2026: game by game
The Chiefs went 6–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–1.
Every game
How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Broncos | W 31–10 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 2 | vs Colts | W 33–30 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 3 | @ Dolphins | W 24–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 4 | @ Raiders | W 30–27 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 6 | vs Chargers | W 22–6 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 7 | @ Seahawks | L 3–20 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 8 | @ Broncos | L 24–28 | 76% | −76 |
| Week 9 | vs Jets | W 35–12 | 87% | +13 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Chiefs win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 · Nov 15 | at Falcons |  Chiefs by 4.0 | 62% |
| Week 11 · Nov 22 | vs Cardinals | Chiefs by 11.9 | 82% |
| Week 12 · Nov 26 | at Bills |  Bills by 4.0 | 38% |
| Week 13 · Dec 3 | at Rams |  Rams by 3.1 | 41% |
| Week 14 · Dec 13 | at Bengals |  Bengals by 1.2 | 46% |
| Week 15 · Dec 21 | vs Patriots | Chiefs by 3.1 | 59% |
| Week 16 · Dec 27 | vs 49ers | Chiefs by 0.6 | 52% |
| Week 17 · Jan 3 | at Chargers | Chiefs by 8.1 | 73% |
| Week 18 · Jan 10 | vs Raiders | Chiefs by 8.9 | 75% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.67 | +22.6 |
| Drops | −0.04 | +4.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.07 | −1.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.23 | −10.2 |
| Kicks | −0.59 | −25.4 |