luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Kansas City Chiefs, 2026: game by game

The Chiefs went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.

Every game

How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Broncos W 31–10 86% +14
Week 2 vs Colts W 33–30 53% +47

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
3rd & 4th downs+4.4+2.21
Fumble bounces+3.1+1.57
Rest−0.2−0.10
Drops−0.7−0.34
Injuries−2.9−1.44
Kicks−4.0−2.02
Judgment calls−6.4−3.20