2026 season · in progress
Kansas City Chiefs, 2026: game by game
The Chiefs went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.
Every game
How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Broncos | W 31–10 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 2 | vs Colts | W 33–30 | 53% | +47 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +4.4 | +2.21 |
| Fumble bounces | +3.1 | +1.57 |
| Rest | −0.2 | −0.10 |
| Drops | −0.7 | −0.34 |
| Injuries | −2.9 | −1.44 |
| Kicks | −4.0 | −2.02 |
| Judgment calls | −6.4 | −3.20 |