Week 12 · November 25–30 · 9 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 12 An early look at week 12, from what each team’s play has been worth so far with the luck taken out and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 9 weeks ahead picked 61.5% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.4, so about 81% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Rams by 6.7 · 69% to win
Ours: Rams by 6.7 Packers win 31% Rams win 69% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Packers win by Rams win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Packers win 30.7% Rams win 69.3% Middle 50%: Packers by 3 to Rams by 16 50% Middle 90%: Packers by 15 to Rams by 28 90% Middle 95%: Packers by 20 to Rams by 33 95% Exactly Rams by 3 8.0% Exactly Packers by 3 6.4% Exactly Rams by 7 5.6% Exactly Rams by 14 4.8% Exactly Rams by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Rams +2.3 Last season Rams +2.3 This season, luck taken out Rams +1.8 Quarterbacks Rams +0.2
Lions by 2.1 · 56% to win
Ours: Lions by 2.1 Bears win 44% Lions win 56% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bears win by Lions win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bears win 43.8% Lions win 56.2% Middle 50%: Bears by 7 to Lions by 11 50% Middle 90%: Bears by 20 to Lions by 24 90% Middle 95%: Bears by 24 to Lions by 28 95% Exactly Lions by 3 8.3% Exactly Bears by 3 7.7% Exactly Lions by 7 5.2% Exactly Bears by 7 4.4% Exactly Lions by 14 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Bears +2.9 Home field Lions +2.3 Quarterbacks Lions +1.7 Last season Lions +0.9
Cowboys by 3.7 · 61% to win
Ours: Cowboys by 3.7 Eagles win 39% Cowboys win 61% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Eagles win by Cowboys win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Eagles win 39.0% Cowboys win 61.0% Middle 50%: Eagles by 6 to Cowboys by 13 50% Middle 90%: Eagles by 18 to Cowboys by 26 90% Middle 95%: Eagles by 23 to Cowboys by 30 95% Exactly Cowboys by 3 8.3% Exactly Eagles by 3 7.3% Exactly Cowboys by 7 5.4% Exactly Cowboys by 14 4.1% Exactly Eagles by 7 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Cowboys +2.3 This season, luck taken out Cowboys +2.1 Last season Eagles +1.6 Quarterbacks Cowboys +0.9
Bills by 2.8 · 58% to win
Ours: Bills by 2.8 Chiefs win 42% Bills win 58% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Chiefs win by Bills win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chiefs win 41.7% Bills win 58.3% Middle 50%: Chiefs by 7 to Bills by 12 50% Middle 90%: Chiefs by 20 to Bills by 25 90% Middle 95%: Chiefs by 24 to Bills by 28 95% Exactly Bills by 3 8.3% Exactly Chiefs by 3 7.6% Exactly Bills by 7 5.3% Exactly Chiefs by 7 4.3% Exactly Bills by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Bills +2.3 This season, luck taken out Chiefs +1.6 Last season Bills +1.5 Quarterbacks Bills +0.5
Broncos by 1.0 · 53% to win
Ours: Broncos by 1.0 Broncos win 53% Steelers win 47% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Broncos win by Steelers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Broncos win 53.1% Steelers win 46.9% Middle 50%: Broncos by 10 to Steelers by 7 50% Middle 90%: Broncos by 23 to Steelers by 21 90% Middle 95%: Broncos by 27 to Steelers by 25 95% Exactly Broncos by 3 8.2% Exactly Steelers by 3 7.9% Exactly Broncos by 7 5.0% Exactly Steelers by 7 4.7% Exactly Broncos by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Steelers +2.3 Last season Broncos +2.0 Quarterbacks Broncos +0.9 This season, luck taken out Broncos +0.4
Vikings by 7.3 · 71% to win
Ours: Vikings by 7.3 Falcons win 29% Vikings win 71% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Falcons win by Vikings win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Falcons win 29.1% Vikings win 70.9% Middle 50%: Falcons by 3 to Vikings by 17 50% Middle 90%: Falcons by 14 to Vikings by 29 90% Middle 95%: Falcons by 19 to Vikings by 34 95% Exactly Vikings by 3 7.9% Exactly Falcons by 3 6.2% Exactly Vikings by 7 5.6% Exactly Vikings by 14 4.9% Exactly Vikings by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Vikings +3.0 Home field Vikings +2.3 Quarterbacks Vikings +2.0
Ravens by 1.1 · 53% to win
Ours: Ravens by 1.1 Ravens win 53% Texans win 47% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Ravens win by Texans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Ravens win 53.2% Texans win 46.8% Middle 50%: Ravens by 10 to Texans by 7 50% Middle 90%: Ravens by 23 to Texans by 21 90% Middle 95%: Ravens by 28 to Texans by 25 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 8.2% Exactly Texans by 3 7.9% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.0% Exactly Texans by 7 4.6% Exactly Ravens by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Ravens +2.8 Home field Texans +2.3 Quarterbacks Ravens +1.5 Last season Texans +0.9
Raiders by 1.3 · 54% to win
Ours: Raiders by 1.3 Raiders win 54% Browns win 46% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Raiders win by Browns win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Raiders win 54.0% Browns win 46.0% Middle 50%: Raiders by 10 to Browns by 7 50% Middle 90%: Raiders by 24 to Browns by 21 90% Middle 95%: Raiders by 28 to Browns by 25 95% Exactly Raiders by 3 8.2% Exactly Browns by 3 7.9% Exactly Raiders by 7 5.1% Exactly Browns by 7 4.6% Exactly Raiders by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Raiders +3.0 Home field Browns +2.3 Quarterbacks Raiders +1.3 Last season Browns +0.7
Bengals by 4.8 · 64% to win
Ours: Bengals by 4.8 Saints win 36% Bengals win 64% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Saints win by Bengals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Saints win 35.9% Bengals win 64.1% Middle 50%: Saints by 4 to Bengals by 14 50% Middle 90%: Saints by 17 to Bengals by 27 90% Middle 95%: Saints by 21 to Bengals by 31 95% Exactly Bengals by 3 8.2% Exactly Saints by 3 7.0% Exactly Bengals by 7 5.5% Exactly Bengals by 14 4.4% Exactly Bengals by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Bengals +2.3 This season, luck taken out Bengals +1.8 Quarterbacks Bengals +1.3 Last season Saints +0.7
Colts by 2.1 · 56% to win
Ours: Colts by 2.1 Giants win 44% Colts win 56% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Giants win by Colts win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Giants win 43.8% Colts win 56.2% Middle 50%: Giants by 7 to Colts by 11 50% Middle 90%: Giants by 20 to Colts by 24 90% Middle 95%: Giants by 24 to Colts by 28 95% Exactly Colts by 3 8.3% Exactly Giants by 3 7.7% Exactly Colts by 7 5.2% Exactly Giants by 7 4.4% Exactly Colts by 14 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Colts +2.3 This season, luck taken out Giants +1.8 Last season Colts +1.4 Quarterbacks Colts +0.1
Dolphins by 0.3 · 51% to win
Ours: Dolphins by 0.3 Jets win 49% Dolphins win 51% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Jets win by Dolphins win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jets win 49.0% Dolphins win 51.0% Middle 50%: Jets by 8 to Dolphins by 10 50% Middle 90%: Jets by 21 to Dolphins by 22 90% Middle 95%: Jets by 26 to Dolphins by 27 95% Exactly Dolphins by 3 8.1% Exactly Jets by 3 8.0% Exactly Dolphins by 7 4.9% Exactly Jets by 7 4.8% Exactly Dolphins by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Jets +3.7 Home field Dolphins +2.3 Last season Dolphins +1.4 Quarterbacks Dolphins +0.3
Jaguars by 13.8 · 85% to win
Ours: Jaguars by 13.8 Titans win 15% Jaguars win 85% 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 ← Titans win by Jaguars win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Titans win 14.9% Jaguars win 85.1% Middle 50%: Jaguars by 5 to Jaguars by 23 50% Middle 90%: Titans by 8 to Jaguars by 35 90% Middle 95%: Titans by 13 to Jaguars by 40 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 6.0% Exactly Jaguars by 14 5.5% Exactly Jaguars by 7 4.9% Exactly Jaguars by 10 4.3% Exactly Jaguars by 17 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Jaguars +4.7 Last season Jaguars +4.5 Quarterbacks Jaguars +2.3 Home field Jaguars +2.3
49ers by 4.3 · 63% to win
Ours: 49ers by 4.3 Seahawks win 37% 49ers win 63% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Seahawks win by 49ers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Seahawks win 37.4% 49ers win 62.6% Middle 50%: Seahawks by 5 to 49ers by 14 50% Middle 90%: Seahawks by 18 to 49ers by 27 90% Middle 95%: Seahawks by 22 to 49ers by 31 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 8.3% Exactly Seahawks by 3 7.2% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.4% Exactly 49ers by 14 4.3% Exactly 49ers by 10 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Home field 49ers +2.3 Quarterbacks 49ers +2.3 Last season Seahawks +2.3 This season, luck taken out 49ers +1.9
Cardinals by 1.5 · 55% to win
Ours: Cardinals by 1.5 Commanders win 45% Cardinals win 55% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Commanders win by Cardinals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Commanders win 45.4% Cardinals win 54.6% Middle 50%: Commanders by 7 to Cardinals by 10 50% Middle 90%: Commanders by 21 to Cardinals by 24 90% Middle 95%: Commanders by 25 to Cardinals by 28 95% Exactly Cardinals by 3 8.2% Exactly Commanders by 3 7.8% Exactly Cardinals by 7 5.1% Exactly Commanders by 7 4.5% Exactly Cardinals by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Cardinals +2.3 Quarterbacks Commanders +0.6 Last season Commanders +0.3 This season, luck taken out Cardinals +0.1
Patriots by 2.2 · 57% to win
Ours: Patriots by 2.2 Patriots win 57% Chargers win 43% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Patriots win by Chargers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Patriots win 56.7% Chargers win 43.3% Middle 50%: Patriots by 11 to Chargers by 7 50% Middle 90%: Patriots by 24 to Chargers by 20 90% Middle 95%: Patriots by 28 to Chargers by 24 95% Exactly Patriots by 3 8.3% Exactly Chargers by 3 7.7% Exactly Patriots by 7 5.2% Exactly Chargers by 7 4.4% Exactly Patriots by 14 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Chargers +2.3 This season, luck taken out Patriots +2.1 Last season Patriots +1.7 Quarterbacks Patriots +0.7
Buccaneers by 1.5 · 55% to win
Ours: Buccaneers by 1.5 Panthers win 45% Buccaneers win 55% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Panthers win by Buccaneers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Panthers win 45.5% Buccaneers win 54.5% Middle 50%: Panthers by 7 to Buccaneers by 10 50% Middle 90%: Panthers by 21 to Buccaneers by 24 90% Middle 95%: Panthers by 25 to Buccaneers by 28 95% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 8.2% Exactly Panthers by 3 7.8% Exactly Buccaneers by 7 5.1% Exactly Panthers by 7 4.6% Exactly Buccaneers by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Buccaneers +2.3 This season, luck taken out Panthers +0.9 Quarterbacks Buccaneers +0.5 Last season Panthers +0.4
Packers at 
Rams 
