luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2026 NFL season · October 15, 2026–October 19

Week 6 2026: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Seahawks 17–14 in a game they win 23% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 6 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cardinals 18–16 @ Rams 18% 35% Lucky
Titans 26–20 @ Colts 32% 80% Deserved
Browns 13–10 vs Ravens 41% 76% Deserved
Broncos 17–14 vs Seahawks 43% 23% Lucky
Texans 34–31 @ Jaguars 43% 49% Coin flip
Packers 23–13 vs Cowboys 46% 39% Lucky

Week 6 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Broncos W 17–14 vs Seahawks 23% +77
2 Cardinals W 18–16 @ Rams 35% +65
3 Packers W 23–13 vs Cowboys 39% +61
4 Saints W 34–27 @ Giants 48% +52
5 Texans W 34–31 @ Jaguars 49% +51
6 Patriots W 26–19 vs Jets 55% +45
7 Bears W 31–23 @ Falcons 68% +32
8 Browns W 13–10 vs Ravens 76% +24
9 Titans W 26–20 @ Colts 80% +20
10 Bills W 33–30 @ Raiders 83% +17
11 Steelers W 26–19 @ Buccaneers 87% +13
12 49ers W 23–17 vs Commanders 88% +12
13 Panthers W 25–14 @ Eagles 92% +8
14 Chiefs W 22–6 vs Chargers 98% +2
15 Chargers L 6–22 @ Chiefs 2% −2
16 Eagles L 14–25 vs Panthers 8% −8
17 Commanders L 17–23 @ 49ers 12% −12
18 Buccaneers L 19–26 vs Steelers 13% −13
19 Raiders L 30–33 vs Bills 17% −17
20 Colts L 20–26 vs Titans 20% −20
21 Ravens L 10–13 @ Browns 24% −24
22 Falcons L 23–31 vs Bears 32% −32
23 Jets L 19–26 @ Patriots 45% −45
24 Jaguars L 31–34 vs Texans 51% −51
25 Giants L 27–34 vs Saints 52% −52
26 Cowboys L 13–23 @ Packers 61% −61
27 Rams L 16–18 vs Cardinals 65% −65
28 Seahawks L 14–17 @ Broncos 77% −77