2026 season · in progress
Las Vegas Raiders, 2026: game by game
The Raiders went 4–5 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 2.9 wins. Luck added 1.1: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–2.
Every game
How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Dolphins | W 27–13 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 2 | @ Chargers | W 26–14 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 3 | @ Saints | W 35–27 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 4 | vs Chiefs | L 27–30 | 50% | −50 |
| Week 5 | @ Patriots | L 17–45 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 6 | vs Bills | L 30–33 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 7 | vs Rams | L 21–35 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 8 | @ Jets | W 38–33 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 9 | @ 49ers | L 17–38 | 2% | −2 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Raiders win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 · Nov 15 | vs Seahawks |  Seahawks by 2.4 | 43% |
| Week 11 · Nov 22 | at Broncos |  Broncos by 6.6 | 30% |
| Week 12 · Nov 29 | at Browns |  Browns by 1.2 | 46% |
| Week 14 · Dec 13 | vs Chargers |  Raiders by 6.3 | 68% |
| Week 15 · Dec 20 | vs Broncos | Broncos by 2.0 | 44% |
| Week 16 · Dec 27 | vs Titans | Raiders by 7.4 | 71% |
| Week 17 · Jan 3 | at Cardinals | Raiders by 0.7 | 52% |
| Week 18 · Jan 10 | at Chiefs |  Chiefs by 8.9 | 25% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.31 | +9.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.13 | +0.6 |
| Judgment calls | +0.13 | +12.2 |
| Injuries | +0.10 | +3.5 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.2 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.03 | +6.4 |
| Drops | −0.12 | −4.6 |