luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Las Vegas Raiders, 2026: game by game

The Raiders went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–0.

Every game

How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Dolphins W 27–13 45% +55
Week 2 @ Chargers W 26–14 69% +31

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Kicks+9.3+4.67
Judgment calls+9.2+4.62
3rd & 4th downs+2.8+1.42
Injuries−1.9−0.93
Drops−3.6−1.82