One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Raiders in one-score games

The Raiders are 2–2 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 2–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 1.6 of those 4. Since 2019: 35–34 in 69 one-score games, 37.3 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Raiders win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.4 2–2

2025 −2.3 2–5

2024 +0.3 3–4

2023 +0.5 5–5

2022 −1.4 4–9

2021 +1.2 7–2

2020 −1.4 5–4

2019 +0.4 7–3

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	2–2	1.6 of 4	+0.4	4–5
2025	2–5	4.3 of 7	−2.3	3–14
2024	3–4	2.7 of 7	+0.3	4–13
2023	5–5	4.5 of 10	+0.5	8–9
2022	4–9	5.4 of 13	−1.4	6–11
2021	7–2	5.8 of 9	+1.2	10–7
2020	5–4	6.4 of 9	−1.4	8–8
2019	7–3	6.6 of 10	+0.4	7–9

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 3	@ Saints	W 35–27	47%	+53
Week 4	vs Chiefs	L 27–30	50%	−50
Week 6	vs Bills	L 30–33	17%	−17
Week 8	@ Jets	W 38–33	49%	+51

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Las Vegas Raiders, every season