luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Las Vegas Raiders, 2021: game by game

The Raiders went 10–7 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–2.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.3.

Every game

How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Ravens W 33–27 72% +28
Week 2 @ Steelers W 26–17 80% +20
Week 3 vs Dolphins W 31–28 92% +8
Week 4 @ Chargers L 14–28 22% −22
Week 5 vs Bears L 9–20 49% −49
Week 6 @ Broncos W 34–24 45% +55
Week 7 vs Eagles W 33–22 85% +15
Week 9 @ Giants L 16–23 87% −87
Week 10 vs Chiefs L 14–41 16% −16
Week 11 vs Bengals L 13–32 50% −50
Week 12 @ Cowboys W 36–33 37% +63
Week 13 vs Washington L 15–17 49% −49
Week 14 @ Chiefs L 9–48 4% −4
Week 15 @ Browns W 16–14 52% +48
Week 16 vs Broncos W 17–13 77% +23
Week 17 @ Colts W 23–20 49% +51
Week 18 vs Chargers W 35–32 58% +42
Wild Card @ Bengals L 19–26 30% −30

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+23.6+1.39
Fumble bounces+11.0+0.65
Kicks+6.7+0.40
Rest−0.4−0.02
Judgment calls−6.3−0.37
3rd & 4th downs−14.2−0.84