2021 season · final

Las Vegas Raiders, 2021: game by game

The Raiders went 10–7 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.3 wins. Luck added 0.7: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–2.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.3.

Every game

How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Ravens	W 33–27	69%	+31
Week 2	@ Steelers	W 26–17	79%	+21
Week 3	vs Dolphins	W 31–28	93%	+7
Week 4	@ Chargers	L 14–28	22%	−22
Week 5	vs Bears	L 9–20	51%	−51
Week 6	@ Broncos	W 34–24	43%	+57
Week 7	vs Eagles	W 33–22	87%	+13
Week 9	@ Giants	L 16–23	86%	−86
Week 10	vs Chiefs	L 14–41	16%	−16
Week 11	vs Bengals	L 13–32	51%	−51
Week 12	@ Cowboys	W 36–33	39%	+61
Week 13	vs Washington	L 15–17	50%	−50
Week 14	@ Chiefs	L 9–48	4%	−4
Week 15	@ Browns	W 16–14	55%	+45
Week 16	vs Broncos	W 17–13	81%	+19
Week 17	@ Colts	W 23–20	47%	+53
Week 18	vs Chargers	W 35–32	60%	+40
Wild Card	@ Bengals	L 19–26	31%	−31

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +31 vs BAL

Wk 2 +21 @ PIT

Wk 3 +7 vs MIA

Wk 4 −22 @ LAC

Wk 5 −51 vs CHI

Wk 6 +57 @ DEN

Wk 7 +13 vs PHI

Wk 9 −86 @ NYG

Wk 10 −16 vs KC

Wk 11 −51 vs CIN

Wk 12 +61 @ DAL

Wk 13 −50 vs WAS

Wk 14 −4 @ KC

Wk 15 +45 @ CLE

Wk 16 +19 vs DEN

Wk 17 +53 @ IND

Wk 18 +40 vs LAC

Wild Card −31 @ CIN

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.64	+7.3
Injuries	+0.49	+17.6
Fumble bounces	+0.34	+14.1
Judgment calls	+0.24	−3.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.15	−14.2