luckadjusted

Week 15 2021 · December 20, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Browns, Week 15 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Browns 16–14, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 5.2 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:35 left): Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 58 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 16
Cleveland Browns 14

December 20, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3

Luck index +48 Raiders lucky · −48 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Browns win 5.

  1. 1 LV 27 CLE 5
  2. 2 LV 27 CLE 12
  3. 3 LV 24 CLE 16
  4. 4 LV 27 CLE 22
  5. 5 LV 13 CLE 10
  6. 6 LV 13 CLE 16
  7. 7 LV 17 CLE 23
  8. 8 LV 14 CLE 23
  9. 9 LV 10 CLE 23
  10. 10 LV 10 CLE 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 52% of them, Browns 48%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+11.1%
Raiders by 9–1613.9%
Raiders by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation7.1%
Browns by 1–821.6%
Browns by 9–1614.5%
Browns by 17+9.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 10.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 47 yds missed · 74% expected
  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • D. Carlson, 48 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (M.J. Stewart), 46 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1309 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +10% LV LV: Punt
2 Q4 14:03 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LV LV: Punt
3 Q4 6:45 The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q4 6:01 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +26% LV LV: Turnover
5 Q4 3:54 The Browns converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +24% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:15 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% LV LV: Field goal
7 Q4 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +58% CLE –
8 Q4 0:03 D. Carlson made 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 17 of 22 from 45+ before +33% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Baker Mayfield (CLE QB), out (IR), replaced by n.mullens · 2.6 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (CLE WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CLE DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Austin Hooper (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Troy Hill (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Grant Delpit (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malik McDowell (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jamie Gillan (CLE P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Darren Waller (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LV LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 25% · Browns 75%

Final margin
Raiders by 2
Luck in points
12.5 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 52% · Browns 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2021 games · Raiders · Browns

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