luckadjusted

Week 15 2021 · December 19, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Ravens, Week 15 2021: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Ravens 31–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.0 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Packers were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:42 left): the Ravens’ two-point try failed, worth 23 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 31
Baltimore Ravens 30

December 19, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Packers −9.5

Luck index +23 Packers about even · −23 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 8, Ravens win 2.

  1. 1 GB 52 BAL 24
  2. 2 GB 37 BAL 17
  3. 3 GB 28 BAL 14
  4. 4 GB 44 BAL 33
  5. 5 GB 26 BAL 17
  6. 6 GB 28 BAL 21
  7. 7 GB 17 BAL 13
  8. 8 GB 11 BAL 9
  9. 9 GB 20 BAL 23
  10. 10 GB 31 BAL 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 77% of them, Ravens 23%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+24.8%
Packers by 9–1622.2%
Packers by 1–827.0%
Level after regulation4.0%
Ravens by 1–813.0%
Ravens by 9–166.3%
Ravens by 17+2.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 5.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Crosby, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:53 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +13% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 7:44 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +9% GB BAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:35 Low Block on the Packers (Darnell Savage Jr.), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2945 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:13 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q3 7:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Kevon Seymour), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 238 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:26 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedFalse Start on the Packers (Davante Adams), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 2403 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +7% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:53 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:42 The Ravens’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedIllegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +23% GB BAL: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 8.0 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chris Westry (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chuck Clark (BAL SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Powers (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Billy Turner (GB T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Randall Cobb (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kenny Clark (GB NT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Robert Tonyan (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 78% · Ravens 22%

Final margin
Packers by 1
Luck in points
6.6 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Packers 77% · Ravens 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2021 games · Packers · Ravens

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