Week 15 2021 · December 19, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Titans at Steelers, Week 15 2021: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Titans 19–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Titans.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:59 left): the Titans fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 23 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final
 Tennessee Titans | 13 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Steelers lucky · −34 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 3, Steelers win 7.
- 1 TEN 35 PIT 19
- 2 TEN 30 PIT 22
- 3 TEN 33 PIT 30
- 4 TEN 13 PIT 15
- 5 TEN 3 PIT 7
- 6 TEN 3 PIT 10
- 7 TEN 6 PIT 16
- 8 TEN 9 PIT 22
- 9 TEN 10 PIT 26
- 10 TEN 5 PIT 27
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 34% of them, Steelers 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 4.7% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 9.6% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 19.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 26.3% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 20.7% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 17.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Bullock, 26 yds made · 96% expected
- C. Boswell, 36 yds made · 91% expected
- R. Bullock, 32 yds made · 93% expected
- C. Boswell, 56 yds missed · 61% expected
- C. Boswell, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Boswell, 46 yds made · 77% expected
- C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 73% expected
Penalties: Titans 7 for 68 yards, Steelers 5 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:29 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Steelers, 10 yards | +3% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:44 | Encroachment on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +1.2 pts |
| Q2 12:17 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:24 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +3% PIT +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:14 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +1.0 pts |
| Q3 10:55 | Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +12% PIT +4.1 pts |
| Q3 6:06 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 15 yards | +4% PIT +1.8 pts |
| Q3 4:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 9 yards | +1% PIT +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:57 | Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 14 yards, wiping out the play | +17% PIT +3.3 pts |
| Q4 14:05 | False Start on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% TEN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:56 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +4% PIT +0.9 pts |
Titans penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 10:55 | Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +12% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 14:57 | Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 14 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2262 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 | +17% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 11:29 | The Titans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +11% TEN | TEN: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 8:10 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +8% TEN | PIT: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 7:25 | C. Boswell made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 20 of 24 from 45+ before | +10% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 6:41 | The Titans fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% PIT | TEN: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 0:59 | The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +23% TEN | TEN: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:46 | The Titans were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +22% PIT | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kevin Dotson (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Montravius Adams (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- A.J. Brown (TEN WR), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
- Derrick Henry (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Rodger Saffold (TEN G), out · 0.5 pts
- David Long (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Monty Rice (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 31% · Steelers 69%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 6
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 34% · Steelers 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2021 games · 
Titans · 
Steelers
More from Week 15 2021
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 34–28 · replay 75% for the winner
- Patriots at Colts IND 27–17 · replay 75% for the winner
- Cardinals at Lions DET 30–12 · replay 18% for the winner
- Panthers at Bills BUF 31–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants DAL 21–6 · replay 74% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 30–16 · replay 31% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 31–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Falcons at 49ers SF 31–13 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bengals at Broncos CIN 15–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Packers at Ravens GB 31–30 · replay 80% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 9–0 · replay 16% for the winner
- Raiders at Browns LV 16–14 · replay 55% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 17–9 · replay 46% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 20–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington at Eagles PHI 27–17 · replay 94% for the winner