luckadjusted

Week 15 2021 · December 19, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Giants, Week 15 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 21–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.6 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 80% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:51 left): the Giants were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 21
New York Giants 6

December 19, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −11.5

Luck index +27 Cowboys lucky · −27 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 7, Giants win 3.

  1. 1 DAL 34 NYG 7
  2. 2 DAL 30 NYG 10
  3. 3 DAL 24 NYG 9
  4. 4 DAL 22 NYG 10
  5. 5 DAL 19 NYG 10
  6. 6 DAL 25 NYG 20
  7. 7 DAL 17 NYG 14
  8. 8 DAL 13 NYG 16
  9. 9 DAL 14 NYG 21
  10. 10 DAL 0 NYG 15

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 73% of them, Giants 27%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+23.6%
Cowboys by 9–1621.4%
Cowboys by 1–825.5%
Level after regulation5.0%
Giants by 1–814.8%
Giants by 9–166.8%
Giants by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 12.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 42 yds made · 80% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 27 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Gano, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:59 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% DAL DAL: Punt
2 Q1 10:13 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% NYG NYG: Turnover
3 Q1 6:51 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +16% DAL NYG: Field goal
4 Q2 5:31 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +5% DAL DAL: Field goal
5 Q2 1:55 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% NYG DAL: Field goal
6 Q2 0:03 G. Zuerlein made 27-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +9% NYG DAL: Punt
7 Q3 13:26 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Kyle Rudolph), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2036 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +5% DAL DAL: Punt
8 Q3 4:30 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% DAL NYG: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out, replaced by m.glennon · 1.9 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kadarius Toney (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Osa Odighizuwa (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 99% · Giants 1%

Final margin
Cowboys by 15
Luck in points
2.8 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 73% · Giants 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2021 games · Cowboys · Giants

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