luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

All-time · every game since 2019

The luckiest plays since 2019

The luckiest play since 2019 came with 0:08 left in the fourth quarter of Steelers at Lions (2025 Week 16): Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 0 yards, wiping out the play. The luck in it was worth 100 points of win probability to the Steelers. Of the 50 below, 23 are judgment calls, 19 are kicks, 6 are drops and 2 are fumble bounces.

Only the chance part of a play counts: a kick against what that kicker makes from that distance in that weather, a fumble against the near-even bounce, a drop against the receiver’s own rate, a judgment call a crew could have made or not. Each is valued as the swing in win probability it caused at the moment, so a miss at the gun of a tied game counts for far more than one in the second quarter. Flags count at their full value, before the flagged player’s weighting. Methodology

#The playHelpedGameWhenWin prob.Result
1 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 0 yards, wiping out the play Steelers PIT at DET 2025 Week 16 Q4 0:08 +100 Won
2 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Michael Gallup), 10 yards, wiping out the play Rams DAL at LA 2020 Week 1 Q4 0:31 +91 Won
3 G. Joseph missed a 37-yard field goal Cardinals MIN at ARI 2021 Week 2 Q4 0:04 +76 Won
4 C. Santos had a 46-yard field goal blocked Packers GB at CHI 2024 Week 11 Q4 0:03 +73 Won
5 P. Freiermuth dropped a catchable pass Bengals CIN at PIT 2024 Week 18 Q4 0:15 +70 Won
6 R. Bullock missed a 49-yard field goal Jets TEN at NYJ 2021 Week 4 OT 0:19 +69 Won
7 M. Gay missed a 34-yard field goal Giants NYG at TB 2019 Week 3 Q4 0:04 +69 Won
8 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Talanoa Hufanga), 5 yards, wiping out the play Commanders DEN at WAS 2025 Week 13 OT 5:29 +68 Lost anyway
9 E. Pineiro missed a 41-yard field goal Chargers LAC at CHI 2019 Week 8 Q4 0:04 +68 Won
10 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the play Ravens CLE at BAL 2022 Week 7 Q4 2:24 +66 Won
11 J. Karty had a 44-yard field goal blocked Eagles LA at PHI 2025 Week 3 Q4 0:03 +63 Won
12 J. Tucker made a 66-yard field goal Ravens BAL at DET 2021 Week 3 Q4 0:03 +62 Won
13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play Giants BAL at NYG 2022 Week 6 Q4 2:00 +61 Won
14 C. Okonkwo dropped a catchable pass Chiefs TEN at KC 2022 Week 9 Q4 0:22 +59 Won
15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Josh Wallace), 4 yards, wiping out the play Broncos LA at DEN 2026 Week 3 Q4 1:15 +59 Won
16 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (A.J. Green), 10 yards, wiping out the play Chargers LAC at CIN 2020 Week 1 Q4 0:12 +58 Won
17 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play Browns LV at CLE 2021 Week 15 Q4 0:35 +58 Lost anyway
18 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play Saints NO at TB 2022 Week 13 Q4 0:19 +57 Lost anyway
19 T. Loop missed a 44-yard field goal Steelers BAL at PIT 2025 Week 18 Q4 0:02 +56 Won
20 D. Mooney dropped a catchable pass Jets ATL at NYJ 2025 Week 13 Q4 0:48 +56 Won
21 Q. Johnston dropped a catchable pass Packers LAC at GB 2023 Week 11 Q4 0:30 +55 Won
22 W. Lutz had a 35-yard field goal blocked Chiefs DEN at KC 2024 Week 10 Q4 0:01 +55 Won
23 R. Bullock missed a 47-yard field goal Giants NYG at TEN 2022 Week 1 Q4 0:04 +55 Won
24 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play Chargers KC at LAC 2020 Week 2 Q4 1:14 +54 Lost anyway
25 M. Prater missed a 51-yard field goal Seahawks SEA at ARI 2023 Week 18 Q4 0:01 +54 Won
26 J. Moody missed a 41-yard field goal Browns SF at CLE 2023 Week 6 Q4 0:09 +52 Won
27 J. Myers missed a 61-yard field goal Rams SEA at LA 2025 Week 11 Q4 0:01 +52 Won
28 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darren Sproles), 10 yards, wiping out the play Lions DET at PHI 2019 Week 3 Q4 0:55 +52 Won
29 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play Broncos DEN at WAS 2025 Week 13 OT 4:04 +51 Won
30 J. Tucker missed a 61-yard field goal Colts IND at BAL 2023 Week 3 Q4 0:06 +51 Won
31 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play Bengals CIN at JAX 2023 Week 13 OT 6:19 +50 Won
32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Anthony Averett), 5 yards, wiping out the play Steelers BAL at PIT 2021 Week 13 Q4 2:55 +49 Won
33 O. Zaccheaus dropped a catchable pass Falcons ATL at WAS 2024 Week 17 Q4 0:55 +49 Lost anyway
34 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselves Packers NE at GB 2022 Week 4 Q4 0:04 +48 Won
35 Y. Koo had a 63-yard field goal blocked Saints NO at ATL 2022 Week 1 Q4 0:02 +48 Won
36 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play Bengals CIN at KC 2024 Week 2 Q4 0:53 +47 Lost anyway
37 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Golden Tate), 0 yards Bears NYG at CHI 2020 Week 2 Q4 0:04 +46 Won
38 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play Cardinals DET at ARI 2020 Week 3 Q4 2:09 +46 Lost anyway
39 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselves Raiders LAC at LV 2020 Week 15 Q4 0:04 +45 Lost anyway
40 N. Folk missed a 56-yard field goal Buccaneers TB at NE 2021 Week 4 Q4 0:59 +45 Won
41 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Isaac TeSlaa), 10 yards, wiping out the play Steelers PIT at DET 2025 Week 16 Q4 0:25 +45 Won
42 C. McLaughlin had a 43-yard field goal blocked Jets NYJ at TB 2025 Week 3 Q4 2:00 +44 Lost anyway
43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Jordan Hicks), 27 yards, wiping out the play 49ers ARI at SF 2020 Week 1 Q4 9:37 +44 Lost anyway
44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 13 yards, wiping out the play Jaguars KC at JAX 2025 Week 5 Q4 0:38 +44 Won
45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 33 yards Raiders LV at DAL 2021 Week 12 OT 6:01 +43 Won
46 Illegal Contact on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play Browns CLE at IND 2023 Week 7 Q4 0:47 +42 Won
47 B. McManus missed a 63-yard field goal Ravens DEN at BAL 2022 Week 13 Q4 0:02 +42 Won
48 T. Boyd dropped a catchable pass Texans HOU at CIN 2023 Week 10 Q4 1:42 +42 Won
49 G. Zuerlein missed a 44-yard field goal Seahawks LA at SEA 2019 Week 5 Q4 0:15 +42 Won
50 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the play Raiders CLE at LV 2024 Week 4 Q4 10:28 +42 Won

Win prob.: points of win probability the luck was worth to the team it helped (100 = a whole game). The team it hurt lost the same.

Luckiest wins since 2019 · Unluckiest losses · Luckiest teams · Where luck comes from