luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Texans at Bengals, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Bengals 30–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 8 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Bengals.

An off day for the Bengals: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bengals were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:42 left): T. Boyd dropped a catchable pass, worth 42 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 30
Cincinnati Bengals 27

November 12, 2023 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −5.5

Luck index +18 Texans about even · −18 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 8, Bengals win 2.

  1. 1 HOU 43 CIN 9
  2. 2 HOU 41 CIN 16
  3. 3 HOU 47 CIN 28
  4. 4 HOU 35 CIN 20
  5. 5 HOU 45 CIN 33
  6. 6 HOU 33 CIN 24
  7. 7 HOU 37 CIN 32
  8. 8 HOU 40 CIN 38
  9. 9 HOU 17 CIN 20
  10. 10 HOU 26 CIN 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bengals

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%.

41 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Texans offenseEPA per play gained +0.36 +0.01 better by 0.35
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.12 worse by 0.06
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 +0.12 better by 0.05
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.36 +0.09 worse by 0.27

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 82% of them, Bengals 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+40.8%
Texans by 9–1621.3%
Texans by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation1.9%
Bengals by 1–810.6%
Bengals by 9–164.9%
Bengals by 17+2.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Texans by 3, without the luck Texans by 9.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Ammendola, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 22 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. McPherson, 50 yds made · 73% expected
  • E. McPherson, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 38 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 7 for 50 yards, Bengals 4 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Will Anderson), 15 yards +3% CIN +1.0 pts
Q1 2:12 False Start on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +1.1 pts
Q2 11:03 Face Mask on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 6 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 7:30 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 3:11 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.3 pts
Q3 9:39 Illegal Touch Pass on the Texans (Robert Woods), 0 yards 0% CIN 0.0 pts
Q3 7:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 42 yards +6% HOU +2.9 pts
Q3 5:05 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +1% HOU +1.1 pts
Q3 1:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Tavierre Thomas), 8 yards +2% CIN +0.9 pts
Q4 4:07 Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact on the Texans (Denzel Perryman), 14 yards +5% CIN +1.4 pts
Q4 3:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Denzel Perryman), 3 yards +3% CIN +0.8 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:38 The Bengals converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:30 The Texans converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedFalse Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% HOU HOU: Turnover
3 Q2 1:00 The Texans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q2 0:15 M. Ammendola made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 2 of 6 from 45+ before +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
5 Q4 1:42 T. Boyd dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 115 catchable balls before this +42% HOU CIN: Field goal
6 Q4 1:33 N. Dell dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 36 catchable balls before this +19% CIN HOU: Field goal
7 Q4 0:42 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +15% HOU HOU: Field goal
8 Q4 0:05 M. Ammendola made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +11% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Sam Hubbard (CIN DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 93% · Bengals 7%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
6.8 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 9.8
Replay with same day's form
Texans 82% · Bengals 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Texans · Bengals

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