luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Giants at Cowboys, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 49–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.4 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 90% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:04 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 17
Dallas Cowboys 49

November 12, 2023 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −17.5

Luck index 0 Cowboys about even · 0 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Cowboys win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 20 DAL 29
  2. 2 NYG 3 DAL 20
  3. 3 NYG 20 DAL 41
  4. 4 NYG 14 DAL 38
  5. 5 NYG 9 DAL 37
  6. 6 NYG 17 DAL 47
  7. 7 NYG 10 DAL 44
  8. 8 NYG 17 DAL 54
  9. 9 NYG 3 DAL 44
  10. 10 NYG 13 DAL 62

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 0% of them, Cowboys 100%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.0%
Giants by 9–160.0%
Giants by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Cowboys by 1–80.5%
Cowboys by 9–162.8%
Cowboys by 17+96.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 32. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 33.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:24 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +5% NYG DAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 10:20 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +10% NYG DAL: Punt
3 Q1 8:54 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% DAL NYG: Punt
4 Q1 8:04 L. Schoonmaker dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 4 catchable balls before this +5% NYG DAL: Punt
5 Q1 7:21 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% NYG DAL: Punt
6 Q1 0:04 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 42% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% NYG DAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 15:00 The Giants got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 13:28 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +3% DAL NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out (IR), replaced by t.devito · 1.9 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mark Glowinski (NYG G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Darren Waller (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 32
Luck in points
1.7 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 33.7
Replay with same day's form
Giants 0% · Cowboys 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Giants · Cowboys

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