luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Lions at Chargers, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Chargers 41–38 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.8 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:42 left): the Chargers converted 4th & 1, worth 34 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Detroit Lions 41
Los Angeles Chargers 38

November 12, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +33 Lions lucky · −33 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 7, Chargers win 3.

  1. 1 DET 36 LAC 7
  2. 2 DET 27 LAC 7
  3. 3 DET 31 LAC 17
  4. 4 DET 23 LAC 13
  5. 5 DET 31 LAC 24
  6. 6 DET 45 LAC 41
  7. 7 DET 26 LAC 24
  8. 8 DET 27 LAC 30
  9. 9 DET 28 LAC 36
  10. 10 DET 21 LAC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 67% of them, Chargers 33%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+17.8%
Lions by 9–1619.3%
Lions by 1–827.8%
Level after regulation2.3%
Chargers by 1–818.5%
Chargers by 9–169.8%
Chargers by 17+4.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 13.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Dicker, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • R. Patterson, 41 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 5:13 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +14% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q4 14:17 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +13% DET LAC: Touchdown
3 Q4 13:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Cameron Sutton), 0 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3991 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +15% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:33 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +23% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:35 The Lions converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +21% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:42 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +34% LAC LAC: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:47 The Lions converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +16% DET DET: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 R. Patterson made 41-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +20% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Scott Daly (DET LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 99% · Chargers 1%

Final margin
Lions by 3
Luck in points
10.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 13.7
Replay with same day's form
Lions 67% · Chargers 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Lions · Chargers

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