luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Commanders at Seahawks, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Commanders 29–26, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): J. Myers made a 43-yard field goal, worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Washington Commanders 26
Seattle Seahawks 29

November 12, 2023 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −6

Luck index +27 Seahawks lucky · −27 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 3, Seahawks win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 34 SEA 17
  2. 2 WAS 36 SEA 27
  3. 3 WAS 19 SEA 16
  4. 4 WAS 27 SEA 29
  5. 5 WAS 27 SEA 34
  6. 6 WAS 24 SEA 33
  7. 7 WAS 16 SEA 28
  8. 8 WAS 24 SEA 40
  9. 9 WAS 14 SEA 34
  10. 10 WAS 0 SEA 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 27% of them, Seahawks 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+4.0%
Commanders by 9–167.5%
Commanders by 1–814.2%
Level after regulation3.6%
Seahawks by 1–823.8%
Seahawks by 9–1621.6%
Seahawks by 17+25.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 3, without the luck Seahawks by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Slye, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Myers, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Myers, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 6 for 39 yards, Seahawks 8 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:35 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q1 10:40 Disqualification on the Commanders (Emmanuel Forbes), 15 yards +6% SEA +1.8 pts
Q1 9:02 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +1.5 pts
Q1 6:34 False Start on the Commanders, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 6:35 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Seahawks, 5 yards +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q2 1:50 False Start on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +0.3 pts
Q2 0:46 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 0:26 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +5% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 0:15 Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 0 yards 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q3 8:56 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% WAS +1.6 pts
Q4 8:00 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q4 4:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 6 yards +14% SEA +2.6 pts
Q4 4:37 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q4 4:31 Face Mask on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 4 yards +1% SEA +0.7 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:40 Disqualification on the Commanders (Emmanuel Forbes), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 260 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% SEA SEA: Field goal
2 Q3 10:37 J. Slye made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 37 of 55 from 45+ before +8% WAS WAS: Turnover
3 Q4 5:16 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% WAS SEA: Touchdown
4 Q4 4:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1686 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +14% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:08 The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:02 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:33 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% SEA SEA: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 J. Myers made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +15% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Coby Bryant (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Uchenna Nwosu (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cody Barton (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 51% · Seahawks 49%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
2.9 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 27% · Seahawks 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Commanders · Seahawks

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