2023 season · final

Washington Commanders, 2023: game by game

The Commanders went 4–13 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.2 wins. Luck cost them 2.2: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6.

Every game

How often the Commanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Cardinals	W 20–16	87%	+13
Week 2	@ Broncos	W 35–33	49%	+51
Week 3	vs Bills	L 3–37	6%	−6
Week 4	@ Eagles	L 31–34	9%	−9
Week 5	vs Bears	L 20–40	63%	−63
Week 6	@ Falcons	W 24–16	46%	+54
Week 7	@ Giants	L 7–14	52%	−52
Week 8	vs Eagles	L 31–38	32%	−32
Week 9	@ Patriots	W 20–17	74%	+26
Week 10	@ Seahawks	L 26–29	27%	−27
Week 11	vs Giants	L 19–31	54%	−54
Week 12	@ Cowboys	L 10–45	11%	−11
Week 13	vs Dolphins	L 15–45	2%	−2
Week 15	@ Rams	L 20–28	13%	−13
Week 16	@ Jets	L 28–30	91%	−91
Week 17	vs 49ers	L 10–27	1%	−1
Week 18	vs Cowboys	L 10–38	1%	−1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +13 vs ARI

Wk 2 +51 @ DEN

Wk 3 −6 vs BUF

Wk 4 −9 @ PHI

Wk 5 −63 vs CHI

Wk 6 +54 @ ATL

Wk 7 −52 @ NYG

Wk 8 −32 vs PHI

Wk 9 +26 @ NE

Wk 10 −27 @ SEA

Wk 11 −54 vs NYG

Wk 12 −11 @ DAL

Wk 13 −2 vs MIA

Wk 15 −13 @ LA

Wk 16 −91 @ NYJ

Wk 17 −1 vs SF

Wk 18 −1 vs DAL

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Commanders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Injuries	+0.38	+14.7
Judgment calls	+0.15	+3.8
Rest	+0.06	+2.4
Drops	−0.21	−5.1
Fumble bounces	−0.23	−2.3
Kicks	−0.89	−11.9