luckadjusted

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Cardinals at Commanders, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Cardinals 20–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:02 left): Return touchdown by the Cardinals, worth 60 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 16
Washington Commanders 20

September 10, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −7

Luck index +12 Commanders about even · −12 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Commanders win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 16 WAS 9
  2. 2 ARI 8 WAS 10
  3. 3 ARI 12 WAS 16
  4. 4 ARI 9 WAS 16
  5. 5 ARI 13 WAS 23
  6. 6 ARI 3 WAS 16
  7. 7 ARI 10 WAS 25
  8. 8 ARI 3 WAS 22
  9. 9 ARI 6 WAS 30
  10. 10 ARI 3 WAS 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 12% of them, Commanders 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.9%
Cardinals by 9–163.0%
Cardinals by 1–87.3%
Level after regulation2.1%
Commanders by 1–816.9%
Commanders by 9–1623.0%
Commanders by 17+46.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 1.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Prater, 54 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Slye, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Prater, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Slye, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1699 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +11% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:55 The Commanders fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ARI WAS: Punt
3 Q2 1:02 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Commanders fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams +60% ARI WAS: Field goal
4 Q3 0:09 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Cardinals fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% WAS ARI: Punt
5 Q4 11:54 The Commanders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:24 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% WAS WAS: Punt
7 Q4 4:58 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% ARI ARI: Turnover
8 Q4 4:53 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +31% WAS WAS: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 4.2 pts
  • Kelvin Beachum (ARI T), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 34% · Commanders 66%

Final margin
Commanders by 4
Luck in points
5.0 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 12% · Commanders 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Cardinals · Commanders

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