luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Packers at Bears, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Bears 38–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Packers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:02 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 10, worth 11 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 38
Chicago Bears 20

September 10, 2023 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −1

Luck index +41 Packers lucky · −41 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 6, Bears win 4.

  1. 1 GB 44 CHI 19
  2. 2 GB 20 CHI 2
  3. 3 GB 26 CHI 13
  4. 4 GB 26 CHI 17
  5. 5 GB 19 CHI 13
  6. 6 GB 16 CHI 14
  7. 7 GB 15 CHI 18
  8. 8 GB 9 CHI 15
  9. 9 GB 6 CHI 19
  10. 10 GB 0 CHI 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 59% of them, Bears 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+13.9%
Packers by 9–1617.0%
Packers by 1–826.4%
Level after regulation2.8%
Bears by 1–820.8%
Bears by 9–1612.7%
Bears by 17+6.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.0 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 18, without the luck Packers by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 47 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Santos, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Carlson, 52 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 9 for 90 yards, Bears 7 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears, 11 yards +2% GB +1.0 pts
Q1 4:00 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q1 3:39 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.3 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Contact on the Packers (Jaire Alexander), 5 yards +3% CHI +0.9 pts
Q2 6:37 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% GB +1.5 pts
Q2 2:28 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.4 pts
Q3 5:08 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (De'Vondre Campbell), 15 yards +1% CHI +1.4 pts
Q3 3:31 Face Mask on the Packers, 15 yards +1% CHI +1.4 pts
Q3 3:22 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +1% GB +0.9 pts
Q3 2:36 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% CHI +1.2 pts
Q3 2:08 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Rudy Ford), 15 yards +2% CHI +1.2 pts
Q3 0:59 Face Mask on the Bears (Travis Homer), 15 yards +3% GB +1.4 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Packers (Dontayvion Wicks), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.8 pts
Q4 12:53 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 15 yards 0% CHI +1.1 pts
Q4 7:56 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Dontayvion Wicks), 10 yards 0% CHI +0.9 pts
Q4 2:54 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB 0.0 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:39 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +9% GB CHI: Field goal
2 Q1 10:11 The Packers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:14 The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:12 C. Claypool dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 54 catchable balls before this +6% GB CHI: Field goal
5 Q2 13:21 The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% CHI CHI: Field goal
6 Q2 6:37 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% GB GB: Punt
7 Q2 4:42 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% GB GB: Punt
8 Q2 1:02 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% GB GB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dante Pettis (CHI WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Equanimeous St. Brown (CHI WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 78% · Bears 22%

Final margin
Packers by 18
Luck in points
13.0 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Packers 59% · Bears 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Packers · Bears

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