luckadjusted

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Packers at Bears, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Bears 38–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Packers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:02 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 10, worth 11 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 38
Chicago Bears 20

September 10, 2023 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −1

Luck index +42 Packers lucky · −42 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 6, Bears win 4.

  1. 1 GB 33 CHI 10
  2. 2 GB 37 CHI 20
  3. 3 GB 16 CHI 3
  4. 4 GB 21 CHI 12
  5. 5 GB 16 CHI 10
  6. 6 GB 13 CHI 11
  7. 7 GB 22 CHI 24
  8. 8 GB 17 CHI 24
  9. 9 GB 3 CHI 15
  10. 10 GB 13 CHI 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 58% of them, Bears 42%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+14.5%
Packers by 9–1616.3%
Packers by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation2.3%
Bears by 1–820.7%
Bears by 9–1613.3%
Bears by 17+6.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 8.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 47 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Santos, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Carlson, 52 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:39 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% GB CHI: Field goal
2 Q1 10:11 The Packers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:14 The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:12 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedC. Claypool dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 54 catchable balls before this +8% GB CHI: Field goal
5 Q2 13:21 The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% CHI CHI: Field goal
6 Q2 4:42 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% GB GB: Punt
7 Q2 1:02 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% GB GB: Field goal
8 Q3 6:34 The Packers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dante Pettis (CHI WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Equanimeous St. Brown (CHI WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 88% · Bears 12%

Final margin
Packers by 18
Luck in points
9.9 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 8.1
Replay with same day's form
Packers 58% · Bears 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Packers · Bears

More from Week 1 2023