2023 season · final
Chicago Bears, 2023: game by game
The Bears went 7–10 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.4 wins. Luck cost them 0.4: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.
Every game
How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Packers | L 20–38 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 2 | @ Buccaneers | L 17–27 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 3 | @ Chiefs | L 10–41 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 4 | vs Broncos | L 28–31 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 5 | @ Commanders | W 40–20 | 37% | +63 |
| Week 6 | vs Vikings | L 13–19 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 7 | vs Raiders | W 30–12 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 8 | @ Chargers | L 13–30 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 9 | @ Saints | L 17–24 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 10 | vs Panthers | W 16–13 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 11 | @ Lions | L 26–31 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 12 | @ Vikings | W 12–10 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 14 | vs Lions | W 28–13 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 15 | @ Browns | L 17–20 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 16 | vs Cardinals | W 27–16 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 17 | vs Falcons | W 37–17 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 18 | @ Packers | L 9–17 | 15% | −15 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bears’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.94 | +24.1 |
| Injuries | +0.17 | +4.6 |
| Rest | +0.06 | +2.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.18 | −8.9 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.20 | −2.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.57 | −21.9 |