Referee calls · 2019–2026
Do refs favor the Bears?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.37 points a game to the Bears since 2019, 23rd of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +0.09 points a game over 3 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
Call luck, season by season
Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Bears minus the calls that hurt them.
Biggest calls for the Bears
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Golden Tate), 0 yards · 2020 Week 2 · 45 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Kindle Vildor), 29 yards · 2024 Week 13 · 34 pts of win probability
- Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maurice Hurst Jr.), 15 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 5 · 28 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (John Johnson), 48 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 3 · 23 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 11 yards · 2024 Week 8 · 22 pts of win probability
Biggest calls against
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 13 · 40 pts of win probability
- Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 13 · 37 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 1 · 30 pts of win probability
- Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears, 8 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 12 · 22 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Eddie Jackson), 8 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 2 · 21 pts of win probability
Questions
Do refs favor the Bears?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.37 points a game to the Bears since 2019, 23rd of 32 teams.
What about the playoffs?
In the playoffs: +0.09 points a game over 3 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
How is this measured?
Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.
Is it more than chance?
Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.
All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Chicago Bears, every season