luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Bears at Commanders, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Bears 18–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.2 points to the Bears.

An off day for the Bears: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Commanders were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:21 left): the Bears were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 45 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Chicago Bears 15
Washington Commanders 18

October 27, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −1.5

Luck index +4 Commanders about even · −4 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 0, Commanders win 10.

  1. 1 CHI 13 WAS 16
  2. 2 CHI 28 WAS 34
  3. 3 CHI 7 WAS 17
  4. 4 CHI 9 WAS 22
  5. 5 CHI 19 WAS 34
  6. 6 CHI 13 WAS 31
  7. 7 CHI 13 WAS 35
  8. 8 CHI 21 WAS 47
  9. 9 CHI 20 WAS 50
  10. 10 CHI 17 WAS 54

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bears

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

39 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bears offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.05 worse by 0.10
Bears defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.07 worse by 0.01
Commanders offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.12 worse by 0.05
Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.12 better by 0.16

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 4% of them, Commanders 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.1%
Bears by 9–160.7%
Bears by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.7%
Commanders by 1–87.3%
Commanders by 9–1617.6%
Commanders by 17+71.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 5.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Seibert, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Seibert, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Seibert, 47 yds made · 74% expected
  • A. Seibert, 51 yds missed · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:23 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedD. Moore dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 209 catchable balls before this +8% WAS CHI: Punt
2 Q1 4:12 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 Q3 8:42 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CHI CHI: Punt
4 Q4 14:09 A. Seibert missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 16 of 27 from 45+ before +7% CHI WAS: Punt
5 Q4 6:21 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedThe Bears fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +45% WAS CHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:49 The Bears converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% CHI CHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 2553 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +22% CHI CHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:25 The Bears’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +12% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Scales (CHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 30% · Commanders 70%

Final margin
Commanders by 3
Luck in points
2.5 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 5.5
Replay with same day's form
Bears 4% · Commanders 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Bears · Commanders

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