luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Titans at Lions, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Titans 52–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:30 left): Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Tennessee Titans 14
Detroit Lions 52

October 27, 2024 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −12.5

Luck index +19 Lions about even · −19 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 2, Lions win 8.

  1. 1 TEN 26 DET 10
  2. 2 TEN 40 DET 36
  3. 3 TEN 22 DET 24
  4. 4 TEN 23 DET 29
  5. 5 TEN 17 DET 26
  6. 6 TEN 19 DET 31
  7. 7 TEN 42 DET 56
  8. 8 TEN 6 DET 24
  9. 9 TEN 20 DET 44
  10. 10 TEN 9 DET 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 19% of them, Lions 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+3.1%
Titans by 9–165.4%
Titans by 1–810.7%
Level after regulation2.1%
Lions by 1–817.3%
Lions by 9–1619.6%
Lions by 17+42.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.2 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 38, without the luck Lions by 24.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Titans 7 for 55 yards, Lions 3 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:59 Face Mask on the Titans (Arden Key), 7 yards +3% DET +0.6 pts
Q1 3:16 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Chigoziem Okonkwo), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% DET +1.7 pts
Q1 1:30 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% DET +3.4 pts
Q2 12:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 8 yards +5% DET +1.8 pts
Q2 11:37 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.6 pts
Q2 7:55 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% DET +2.8 pts
Q2 2:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Brian Branch), 13 yards +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 0:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Brian Branch), 6 yards +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.5 pts
Q3 5:25 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Jalen Reeves-Maybin), 10 yards 0% TEN +0.9 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:10 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TEN TEN: Turnover
2 Q1 11:07 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +4% DET TEN: Punt
3 Q1 3:16 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Chigoziem Okonkwo), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1653 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +5% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:30 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 289 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +5% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:51 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +3% DET TEN: Punt
7 Q2 7:55 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:05 Return touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams +4% DET DET: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Aidan Hutchinson (DET DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jameson Williams (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Derrick Barnes (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 38
Luck in points
13.2 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 24.8
Replay with same day's form
Titans 19% · Lions 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Titans · Lions

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