luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Titans at Lions, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Titans 52–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:30 left): Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Tennessee Titans 14
Detroit Lions 52

October 27, 2024 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −12.5

Luck index +36 Lions lucky · −36 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 4, Lions win 6.

  1. 1 TEN 31 DET 10
  2. 2 TEN 38 DET 26
  3. 3 TEN 22 DET 15
  4. 4 TEN 16 DET 13
  5. 5 TEN 18 DET 20
  6. 6 TEN 33 DET 38
  7. 7 TEN 30 DET 40
  8. 8 TEN 16 DET 30
  9. 9 TEN 12 DET 30
  10. 10 TEN 21 DET 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 36% of them, Lions 64%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+7.0%
Titans by 9–169.3%
Titans by 1–816.5%
Level after regulation3.2%
Lions by 1–821.2%
Lions by 9–1617.0%
Lions by 17+25.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 38. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 22.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:10 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TEN TEN: Turnover
2 Q1 11:07 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% DET TEN: Punt
3 Q1 3:16 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Chigoziem Okonkwo), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1653 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +5% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:30 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 289 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +5% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:22 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +4% TEN TEN: Punt
7 Q2 7:55 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:05 Return touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams +4% DET DET: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Aidan Hutchinson (DET DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jameson Williams (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Derrick Barnes (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 38
Luck in points
15.2 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 22.8
Replay with same day's form
Titans 36% · Lions 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Titans · Lions

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