luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Jets at Patriots, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Patriots stole one. They beat the Jets 25–22, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.5 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Jets were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): G. Wilson dropped a catchable pass, worth 42 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New York Jets 22
New England Patriots 25

October 27, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Jets −7

Luck index +91 Patriots very lucky · −91 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 NYJ 33 NE 3
  2. 2 NYJ 26 NE 3
  3. 3 NYJ 22 NE 3
  4. 4 NYJ 23 NE 7
  5. 5 NYJ 20 NE 7
  6. 6 NYJ 36 NE 26
  7. 7 NYJ 25 NE 17
  8. 8 NYJ 16 NE 10
  9. 9 NYJ 12 NE 9
  10. 10 NYJ 14 NE 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 91% of them, Patriots 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+48.8%
Jets by 9–1623.1%
Jets by 1–818.2%
Level after regulation1.7%
Patriots by 1–85.9%
Patriots by 9–161.8%
Patriots by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 4.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 44 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Slye, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 5:47 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +21% NYJ NYJ: Punt
2 Q4 12:43 G. Zuerlein missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +15% NE NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q4 10:20 The Patriots converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +14% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q4 9:17 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% NE NE: Field goal
5 Q4 2:00 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +12% NE NE: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:29 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +33% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:25 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +37% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:22 The Patriots’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedG. Wilson dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 271 catchable balls before this +42% NE NE: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyle Dugger (NE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Daniel Ekuale (NE DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ja'Lynn Polk (NE WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chuck Clark (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tony Adams (NYJ FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 30% · Patriots 70%

Final margin
Patriots by 3
Luck in points
1.9 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Jets 91% · Patriots 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Jets · Patriots

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