luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Jets at Patriots, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 25–22, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Jets were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:29 left): the Patriots converted 3rd & 10, worth 33 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New York Jets 22
New England Patriots 25

October 27, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Jets −7

Luck index +86 Patriots very lucky · −86 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 NYJ 26 NE 0
  2. 2 NYJ 24 NE 3
  3. 3 NYJ 27 NE 10
  4. 4 NYJ 27 NE 13
  5. 5 NYJ 21 NE 9
  6. 6 NYJ 17 NE 9
  7. 7 NYJ 23 NE 17
  8. 8 NYJ 20 NE 17
  9. 9 NYJ 13 NE 12
  10. 10 NYJ 10 NE 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 86% of them, Patriots 14%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+35.7%
Jets by 9–1623.6%
Jets by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation1.1%
Patriots by 1–89.9%
Patriots by 9–163.5%
Patriots by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 3, without the luck Patriots by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 44 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Slye, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 8 for 55 yards, Patriots 5 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:55 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NE +0.6 pts
Q1 10:37 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Jalen Mills), 5 yards 0% NE +0.2 pts
Q1 6:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Solomon Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.6 pts
Q1 3:58 Illegal Use of Hands on the Patriots (Marcus Jones), 5 yards 0% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q1 3:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Christian Gonzalez), 17 yards +8% NYJ +2.7 pts
Q1 1:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Christian Elliss), 13 yards +6% NYJ +2.2 pts
Q1 0:23 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q2 10:23 Defensive Holding on the Patriots, 5 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 3:28 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jets, 5 yards +2% NE +0.5 pts
Q3 5:47 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +21% NYJ +4.4 pts
Q3 3:51 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Jarrick Bernard-Converse), 10 yards +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q4 12:17 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Micheal Clemons), 15 yards +10% NE +1.6 pts
Q4 2:57 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE 0.0 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 5:47 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +21% NYJ NYJ: Punt
2 Q4 12:43 G. Zuerlein missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +15% NE NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q4 10:20 The Patriots converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +14% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q4 9:17 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% NE NE: Field goal
5 Q4 2:00 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% NE NE: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:29 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +33% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:25 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +20% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:22 The Patriots’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedG. Wilson dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 271 catchable balls before this +31% NE NE: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyle Dugger (NE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Daniel Ekuale (NE DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ja'Lynn Polk (NE WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chuck Clark (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tony Adams (NYJ FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 46% · Patriots 54%

Final margin
Patriots by 3
Luck in points
2.1 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Jets 86% · Patriots 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Jets · Patriots

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