2024 season · final
New England Patriots, 2024: game by game
The Patriots went 4–13 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–6.
Every game
How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bengals | W 16–10 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 2 | vs Seahawks | L 20–23 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 3 | @ Jets | L 3–24 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 4 | @ 49ers | L 13–30 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 5 | vs Dolphins | L 10–15 | 84% | −84 |
| Week 6 | vs Texans | L 21–41 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 7 | vs Jaguars | L 16–32 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 8 | vs Jets | W 25–22 | 14% | +86 |
| Week 9 | @ Titans | L 17–20 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 10 | @ Bears | W 19–3 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 11 | vs Rams | L 22–28 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 12 | @ Dolphins | L 15–34 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 13 | vs Colts | L 24–25 | 70% | −70 |
| Week 15 | @ Cardinals | L 17–30 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 16 | @ Bills | L 21–24 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 17 | vs Chargers | L 7–40 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 18 | vs Bills | W 23–16 | 27% | +73 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.60 | +4.5 |
| Injuries | +0.24 | +8.9 |
| Rest | +0.05 | +2.0 |
| Kicks | −0.07 | +0.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.55 | −17.2 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.75 | −15.2 |