luckadjusted

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Patriots vs Jaguars, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Patriots 32–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.4 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:40 left): the Patriots converted 3rd & 10, worth 10 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 16
Jacksonville Jaguars 32

October 20, 2024 · Wembley Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −6.5

Luck index +12 Jaguars about even · −12 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 1, Jaguars win 9.

  1. 1 NE 13 JAX 6
  2. 2 NE 13 JAX 16
  3. 3 NE 2 JAX 7
  4. 4 NE 6 JAX 13
  5. 5 NE 19 JAX 29
  6. 6 NE 10 JAX 23
  7. 7 NE 13 JAX 27
  8. 8 NE 3 JAX 20
  9. 9 NE 0 JAX 23
  10. 10 NE 3 JAX 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 12% of them, Jaguars 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+0.6%
Patriots by 9–162.1%
Patriots by 1–88.1%
Level after regulation1.6%
Jaguars by 1–819.9%
Jaguars by 9–1627.8%
Jaguars by 17+40.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 17.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 41 yds made · 83% expected
  • C. Little, 21 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:38 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% NE NE: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:40 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:17 The Patriots converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% NE NE: Field goal
5 Q2 9:25 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:11 False Start on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 17 flags in 4183 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +3% JAX JAX: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 1:55 Return touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +9% JAX JAX: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 8:27 The Patriots converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedFalse Start on the Patriots, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Travis Etienne (JAX RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Vederian Lowe (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jake Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 16
Luck in points
1.0 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 17.0
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 12% · Jaguars 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Patriots · Jaguars

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