luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2024 · October 21, 2024

Ravens at Buccaneers, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Buccaneers 41–31, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:34 left): Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 41
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

October 21, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −4.5

Luck index +46 Ravens lucky · −46 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Buccaneers win 5.

  1. 1 BAL 48 TB 23
  2. 2 BAL 42 TB 27
  3. 3 BAL 47 TB 37
  4. 4 BAL 30 TB 24
  5. 5 BAL 41 TB 38
  6. 6 BAL 31 TB 33
  7. 7 BAL 41 TB 47
  8. 8 BAL 42 TB 51
  9. 9 BAL 24 TB 38
  10. 10 BAL 14 TB 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 54% of them, Buccaneers 46%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+13.4%
Ravens by 9–1614.4%
Ravens by 1–822.1%
Level after regulation4.4%
Buccaneers by 1–822.5%
Buccaneers by 9–1613.2%
Buccaneers by 17+10.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Ravens by 10, without the luck Ravens by 10.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 55 yds missed · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 9 for 85 yards, Buccaneers 8 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:02 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yards +3% TB +1.4 pts
Q1 0:57 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% BAL +3.9 pts
Q2 11:53 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% TB +1.9 pts
Q2 4:34 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% TB +3.5 pts
Q2 3:05 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.5 pts
Q2 1:30 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (K.J. Britt), 15 yards +4% BAL +1.8 pts
Q2 0:40 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards 0% TB +1.0 pts
Q2 0:31 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +2% TB +1.3 pts
Q2 0:26 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% TB +1.7 pts
Q3 14:54 Low Block on the Buccaneers (Antoine Winfield Jr.), 15 yards +3% BAL +1.8 pts
Q3 13:52 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards +1% TB +0.9 pts
Q3 8:22 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Greg Gaines), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 7:55 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +1% TB +0.9 pts
Q3 2:12 Face Mask on the Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield), 15 yards 0% BAL +1.0 pts
Q3 0:11 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Zay Flowers), 10 yards 0% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 4:36 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 2:12 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.7 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:57 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:53 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3322 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +8% TB TB: Turnover
3 Q2 7:31 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% TB TB: Turnover
4 Q2 6:17 The Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +9% BAL TB: Turnover
5 Q2 4:34 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% TB TB: Turnover
6 Q2 3:05 The Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throwsFalse Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% BAL TB: End of half
7 Q3 13:47 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL BAL: Field goal
8 Q3 8:27 C. McLaughlin missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 44 of 59 from 45+ before +7% BAL TB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jake Camarda (TB P), out · 0.3 pts
  • Evan Deckers (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 96% · Buccaneers 4%

Final margin
Ravens by 10
Luck in points
0.5 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 54% · Buccaneers 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Ravens · Buccaneers

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