Week 7 2024 · October 21, 2024
Chargers at Cardinals, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?
The Cardinals beat the Chargers 17–15, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:10 left): the Chargers converted 4th & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 15 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Cardinals lucky · −28 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Cardinals win 7.
- 1 LAC 23 ARI 6
- 2 LAC 17 ARI 9
- 3 LAC 9 ARI 6
- 4 LAC 14 ARI 17
- 5 LAC 14 ARI 19
- 6 LAC 16 ARI 24
- 7 LAC 20 ARI 31
- 8 LAC 10 ARI 24
- 9 LAC 16 ARI 34
- 10 LAC 0 ARI 28
Your call
Did the Cardinals earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 28% of them, Cardinals 72%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 2.7% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 5.8% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 16.2% |
| Level after regulation | 4.8% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 26.7% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 22.4% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 21.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Dicker, 59 yds made · 67% expected
- C. Dicker, 50 yds made · 77% expected
- C. Dicker, 28 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Dicker, 47 yds made · 83% expected
- C. Dicker, 40 yds made · 91% expected
- C. Ryland, 32 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Chargers 5 for 57 yards, Cardinals 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:17 | Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Starling Thomas), 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% LAC +0.4 pts |
| Q2 8:02 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Teair Tart), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:52 | Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LAC +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:25 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +6% ARI +1.0 pts |
| Q3 9:40 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 22 yards | +7% ARI +2.6 pts |
| Q3 7:21 | Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:51 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 15 yards | +9% ARI +1.1 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:06 | The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 9:40 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 131 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +7% ARI | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 6:08 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +9% LAC | ARI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 5:15 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +12% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 2:56 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 4:10 | The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +13% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:02 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +9% ARI | LAC: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:51 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 131 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +9% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Justin Jones (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Matt Prater (ARI K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- BJ Ojulari (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Quentin Johnston (LAC WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Hayden Hurst (LAC TE), out · 0.5 pts
- Jordan McFadden (LAC G), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 36% · Cardinals 64%
- Final margin
- Cardinals by 2
- Luck in points
- 0.1 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 28% · Cardinals 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · 
Chargers · 
Cardinals
More from Week 7 2024
- Broncos at Saints DEN 33–10 · replay 69% for the winner
- Patriots vs Jaguars JAX 32–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CIN 21–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings DET 31–29 · replay 48% for the winner
- Texans at Packers GB 24–22 · replay 75% for the winner
- Dolphins at Colts IND 16–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 28–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 34–14 · replay 57% for the winner
- Titans at Bills BUF 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Panthers at Commanders WAS 40–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Raiders at Rams LA 20–15 · replay 90% for the winner
- Chiefs at 49ers KC 28–18 · replay 71% for the winner
- Jets at Steelers PIT 37–15 · replay 65% for the winner
- Ravens at Buccaneers BAL 41–31 · replay 54% for the winner