Week 7 2024 · October 21, 2024
Chargers at Cardinals, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?
The Cardinals beat the Chargers 17–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 8 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.5 points to the Chargers.
An off day for the Chargers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): C. Ryland made 32-yard field goal, worth 28 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 15 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Cardinals about even · −16 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 2, Cardinals win 8.
- 1 LAC 34 ARI 23
- 2 LAC 6 ARI 3
- 3 LAC 21 ARI 23
- 4 LAC 20 ARI 24
- 5 LAC 0 ARI 8
- 6 LAC 10 ARI 21
- 7 LAC 10 ARI 24
- 8 LAC 24 ARI 41
- 9 LAC 17 ARI 38
- 10 LAC 7 ARI 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Chargers
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.12 | +0.04 | better by 0.07 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.07 | worse by 0.00 |
| Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.06 | better by 0.02 |
| Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.16 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 16% of them, Cardinals 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 10.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 24.6% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 24.8% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 33.9% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Cardinals by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 0.1.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Dicker, 59 yds made · 64% expected
- C. Dicker, 50 yds made · 78% expected
- C. Dicker, 28 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Dicker, 47 yds made · 83% expected
- C. Dicker, 40 yds made · 90% expected
- C. Ryland, 32 yds made · 94% expected
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:04 | C. Dicker made 59-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 20 of 24 from 45+ before | +8% LAC | LAC: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 9:40 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 131 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +8% ARI | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 6:08 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +9% LAC | ARI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 5:15 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +16% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 4:10 | The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +13% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 2:02 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +9% ARI | LAC: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:51 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 131 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +10% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:02 | C. Ryland made 32-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him | +28% ARI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Justin Jones (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Matt Prater (ARI K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- BJ Ojulari (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Quentin Johnston (LAC WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Hayden Hurst (LAC TE), out · 0.5 pts
- Jordan McFadden (LAC G), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 47% · Cardinals 53%
- Final margin
- Cardinals by 2
- Luck in points
- 1.9 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 16% · Cardinals 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · 
Chargers · 
Cardinals
More from Week 7 2024
- Broncos at Saints DEN 33–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- Patriots vs Jaguars JAX 32–16 · replay 88% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CIN 21–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings DET 31–29 · replay 32% for the winner
- Texans at Packers GB 24–22 · replay 86% for the winner
- Dolphins at Colts IND 16–10 · replay 76% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 28–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 34–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Titans at Bills BUF 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Panthers at Commanders WAS 40–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Raiders at Rams LA 20–15 · replay 88% for the winner
- Chiefs at 49ers KC 28–18 · replay 62% for the winner
- Jets at Steelers PIT 37–15 · replay 53% for the winner
- Ravens at Buccaneers BAL 41–31 · replay 44% for the winner